March 31, 2023

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Hurricane Harbor: IAN The Day AFTER in Florida – The Day Before in Carolinas. Ian Part 2

5 min read

From Raleigh where I have a Tropical Storm Warning!

Click on your county.

Showing NWS maps as this is more than the NHC.

It’s not just about their Cone.


The area from Savannah to Wilmington, North Carolina are under the gun for strong winds, flooding rains as the “center” of Ian moves towards Charleston, SC. This area is one large beach area sort of anchored by those two cities with Charleston the well known middle. It’s filled with beautiful Low Country, Marhes and beaches such as Georgetown, Pawleys Island, Murrels Inlet and up the coast to the NC line to Wilmington that will get high surf, flooding rains and strong winds. We aren’t talking about a strong hurricane we are talking a high end Tropical Storm or borderline Hurricane, but the impacts will be the surf and the rain and rain in the Carolinas where there are River Basins and terrain always mean flash flooding probable. A river basin is the area where crops often grow as it’s fertile land and many people live wonderful lives until they flood; they are basically a flood plain in the river basin and that is why the Carolinas are prone to repeated flooding from tropical systems such a Floyd, Fran, Florence, Matthew and many other weaker storms that had smaller floods but flooding none the less!

All converge on general Charleston area for a 2nd landfall.

It could be further South or North but nearby.

To complicate matters these impacts are FAR from the center of the Cone that tracks the EYE so do NOT think you’re fine if you are a newbie to the Carolinas and not in the eye but just the opposite. The long duration rain event that could go on way after Ian winds down as it mixes it up with another feature that lingers. For example the forecast for Raleigh below is an area not in the Cone but in the Zone for weather impacts! The two images side by side show this problem. The WHITE CONE hooking to the left on the 4th and 5th day is the “wind” and “center” of Ian, but the image on the right is the heavy rain totals and possibilities for flooding in the same area that is to the right of the cone on the left. The large orange circle in the image on the right is the WIND impacts of Ian which go FAR out from the cetner of the Cone. I sure hope that makes sense to you, you may have to read it twice. If it doesn’t and you are new to this area ask an old timer and they will explain how the weather drama doesn’t always follow the inside of the cone. 

Some conditions from cities dealing with IAN currently.

High gusts along the Florida coast.

Some flooding going on as seen below.

An Iconic landmark for many of us NASCAR fans.

As as he can always be so dramatic and cute….

Dabuh does it his way.

That there is the center of IAN

leaving land, moving out over the Ocean!

And now the drama begins.

No real intermission here between Acts.

Ian on Earthnull

So personally I’m tired and taking a break for a few hours to just “take it all in” and watch the impact of IAN in Northeast Florida an area I am no stranger to as we spend a lot of time in the Jacksonville/Ormond Beach aera on trips to and from Miami. I need to check in with a few friends who gave me the “thumbs up” symbol last night that they were okay in the area where Ian made landfall. They stayed as they have people there they work with who may need help after the storm and they are okay, not sure on their friends and people they were worried on in their synagogue. I want to watch some video from friends of mine who chased Ian. I want to just rest a little bit and take it in. On an oddly personal note our car is in the shop in Raleigh and being worked on and as that area is prone to flooding they “moved the car” so work on the car will be delayed though the rental will be nice I’m sure.  Crabtree Creek in Raleigh floods often and many of the car dealerships are adjacent to it and at the mere suggestion of a tropical system they move everything to higher ground fast. 

Again you learn from history when you live in a region that has repeated tropical events that are all similar but always in some way unique. Kind of like we are as people, we have commonalities and yet we have our own unique quirks and qualities that make us who we are…

The clean up in Florida is just beginning. So far there is one official death from Ian and sadly I’m pretty sure there will be more and if not that would be a miracle. Way too many people stayed in old apartments and homes on barrier islands where lanbdfall occurred. I’m still unclear why the Naples Fire Department and Police did not move their vehicles, especially that brand new Fire Truck to hire ground as it was obvious they were going to have severe flooding even if IAN was just cruising by on it’s way somewhere else. I mean the car dealerships in Raleigh have moved their cars already but the Fire Department that should have been aware of the dangers did not? I’m sure there’s more to that story, I don’t like to judge other people’s decisions but it seems a no brainer. I can rant later on the press making the message by talking nonstop about Tampa and Ian and many I spoke to personally told me “well they thought it was going to Tampa” and perhaps that’s partly denial and how we live in the tropics always hoping a hurricane goes somewhere else but the message needs to delivered that it is not just about Landfall but the STORM SURGE and FLOODING that often reaches far inland, but rearranges everything at the coast as if a bulldozer was sent in to demolish what was to build some new shopping mall. After Michael that message should have been clear, and yet it wasn’t. We have to do better! 

Stay safe and keep watching the tropics. I hate to tell you the obvious but just as Ian is not done with us yet, the tropics are not done with us yet.

TD 11 far out to the sea on the left!

Strong convection moving westbound in the Carib

Purple possibilities on the map below in 48 hours.

We can talk on that another day…

Later, will update later.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Twitter mostly weather and Instagram whatever. (BobbiStorm)

2022-09-29 15:53:00

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