April 25, 2024

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Hurricane Harbor: 2024 Hurricane Season

4 min read

This is current weather.

East of the Mississippi mostly.

Let’s say Hurricane Country.

Strong rainstorms in New Orleans.

Snow to the North.

You can see the frost and freeze line.

Doesn’t that sound like a shake of some kind?

Today is March 1st, we call this the Meteorological start of Spring, and you can see the further South you go the more chance you have of Yellow Pine Pollen and trees blooming. Yes, the Cherry Blossoms bloom early, but the bulk of beautiful blooms begin as we move through March into April. In the Carolina that means the Day Lillies or as most people call them “tulips” push up from the ground and in the Miami area the few trees that lose their leaves such as frangipangi, poincianna and jacaranda trees begin to show color; it’s a process.

Speaking of a process……….the constant early predictions for the 2024 Hurricane Season are out and about and some are outright terrorizing. Fancy graphics showing us going through the regular list and into whatever list the NHC will use this year. If you go to YouTube, for example, you will see a list such as this…….

That does get the blood pumping doesn’t it?

Don’t let it scare you….

… just prepare yourselves!

Use this time wisely!

I feel like this should be ….

…Hurricane Season brought to you by Home Depot!

A look at the sea surface temperatures today.

People look at this and either scream “EARLY SEASON” and ask about early storms or say “it’s March not May.”  Let me say, that while the water near Africa today does look HOT, HOT, HOT …. it does not mean we will have hurricanes in March or April. There’s Saharan Dust there currently, a really early burst of SAL as we call it and while that does provide beautiful sunsets in Florida and the Caribbean it does not make early hurricanes in March and April. Add in the flow of the air across the planet in that area is mostly West to East meaning we are not there yet.

As you can see above.

Out in the East Atlantic.

West to East the storms be flowing.

So everyone breathe a bit.

Inhale, exhale!

Get a plan.

While you can…. 

…do it calmly!

2023 “busy” hurricane season

compared with 2017 BUSY hurricane season

Of course, with El Nino leaving and La Nina expected to come on fast….it should be a very busy hurricane season. As we learned from last year, a busy El Nino hurricane season with the sheer number of named systems …. remember most stayed far out in the Atlantic as if NHC built a Wall! That’s a joke, too much politics going on and it’s a long time til the Presidential Election that will coincide with the end of the Hurricane Season and there are many factors that can mitigate signals for a busy season. One random factor could be a large volcano, another large volcano, blowing it’s top in 2024 but in the Caribbean. Storms can form early, fast and furious near the African Coast and then just turn a hard right up into the shipping lanes threatening England or even Portugal if they form early and boomerang back. 

Looking at the map of 2017 up above, note named MAJOR HURRICANES moved all the way into the Caribbean and Florida hosted the mermorable Irma. The Islands were raked with Maria and Irma. 

Where hurricanes will travel to is more important than the sheer number of named storms that include many tropical storms that never make it to hurricane let alone Major Hurricane.  Where do they intensify, before landfall or out in the open North Atlantic? Will the Caribbean Basin be busy and if it is (with the lack of sheer from El Nino) often but not always what makes it into the Caribbean makes to somewhere between Texas and Florida! No two hurricane seasons are exactly alike, no two La Ninas are exactly alike!

Lastly, take a look at 1969 up above.

Whoah a busy hurricane season.

And yet only one Cane comes to mind.

Camille

It’s not always about how hot the water is …

…in the Eastern Atlantic.

Wild card:

Early Sahran Dust….

Does that mean it hangs around forever or leaves early? 

Just wondering……

Stay tuned. Colorado State University doesn’t put out it’s EARLY 2024 Hurricane Season report until April 4th, so…………  so………..let’s all breathe.

Make a list.

Prioritize the list.

Look for sales if you have the extra cash and buy early.

If not, slowly one package of crackers at a time hide away in a closet somewhere… in a locked chest.

Think if you have to board up …what your options are and if you leave to evacuate where do you go?

Never too early to start thinking on vs worrying on ….what you will do down the tropical road.

Think on this list and these links.

Less on the temperature of the water today.

What will you need in a few months.

Use your time wisely.

Sweet Tropical Dreams….

…dreams are good, actions better!

More to come on this topic…….

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

noreply@blogger.com (BobbiStorm)

2024-03-01 13:07:00

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