HURRICANE FIONA / INVEST 98L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 21, 2022…10:15 P.M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 19
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 –  5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:        7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 7
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

U. S. LANDFALLS: 1

2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON NAMES:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season.

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

FIONA has become the first major hurricane of the season, and has attained CATEGORY 4 status.with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph.  As of the 8:00 p.m. intermediate advisory from the NHC, the following was available on FIONA:
8:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 21
Location: 25.9°N 71.4°W
Moving: N at 9 mph
Min pressure: 934 mb / 27.58in.
Max sustained: 130 mph

Since FIONA is pretty much behaving as I had forecast, I am not going to spend much time on her, since she is moving north, and track guidance still continues to follow the steering layers forecast, and should move more to the NNE to NE during the next 24 hours.  She is still going to traverse warm water, along with a favorable thermodynamic environment, and may still continue to strengthen during the next 24 hours, and I agree with the NHC in that she may briefly become a 140 mph hurricane .  Early on the 24th, she should interact with a strong mid level tropospheric trof, and should begin to transition to extratropical.
NHC TRACKING MAP



Though we have other systems that are being watched, Gaston is no threat, and two of the other areas are at a low probability right now for development.  What I want to focus on is INVEST 98L, which is forecast to enter the Caribbean Sea.  At the moment, satellite loop imagery from Weathernerds shows a disorganized system at the moment, and the “center” is located just to the north of the South American coast, based on ATCF information.  However, closer analysis of satellite loop imagery appears to show the center just inland.
INVEST 98L IR SATELLITE LOOP

The following information was available on INVEST 98L as of the 8:00 p.m. ATCF BTK report:
8:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 21
Location: 11.2°N 62.8°W
Moving: WNW at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb / 29.74in.
Max sustained: 35 mph
Current conditions based on water vapor loop imagery, wind shear, and 200 mb upper level winds indicate a not so favorable pattern at the moment, with moderate NELY shear being caused by the outflow of hurricane FIONA.  The latest SHIPS diagnostic report keeps shear over the INVEST for approximately another 36 hours, then relaxes shear to below 20 kts. Both the GFS and ECMWF global models have been pretty consistent in the reduction of shear, and developing a radial wind shear pattern.  This type of shear pattern pretty much nullifies zonal wind shear (westerly;easterly), thereby leaving the system intact.  BOTH models show this pattern beginning at around 48 hours, along with a developing upper level radial outflow pattern.  By 120 hours out in the forecast period, both the shear pattern, and 200 mb pattern are forecast to become very favorable.  This look is pretty much “textbook” for very favorable conditions.  Both models also indicate a very favorable moisture pattern from the surface to the mid (500 mb) level of the atmosphere.  I’m going to have to see how this begins to develop as it moves more into the open waters of the Caribbean, as in the current forecast track guidance, the system will be traversing some high OCH (Ocean Heat Content).  IF, and right now I reiterate IF, these conditions do come to fruition, we could witness some very steady organization, and IF a solid core develops, rapid intensification can not be ruled out.  Right now, both models still indicate a strong hurricane (major) in the GOMEX by day 7 in the forecast period.  All of this however, will remain to be seen.    Once again, anything past 5 days in the forecast period becomes less accurate, and this analysis is based on the premise of no changes to the forecast parameters.  However there has really been no change in the models since yesterday.  I am using the MSLP normalized anomaly map just to show the location of where the ECMWF feels the system will be by then, so you can match up the shear and upper level pattern, which shows the center of these features, centered over the system.  The GFS at the moment is much further west in its position.
ECMWF MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES FORECAST 120 HOURS

ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST

ECMWF 200 MB PATTERN SHOWING RADIAL OUTFLOW

ECMWF PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST

ECMWF 850 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST

ECMWF 500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST

CURRENT OCEAN HEAT CONTENT

The NHC has designated a HIGH (90%) probability of cyclone development during the next 5 days, as well as the ECMWF EPS cyclone probability forecast model.
NHC 5 DAY GTWO (LINKED TO TEXT)

ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY

I know everyone wants to know EXACTLY where this is going to go, and right now, a pinpoint track is next to impossible, as FIONA is most likely affecting the accuracy of the guidance modeling.  Other factors such as forward speed, how slowly or quickly INVEST 98L organizes, and how strong or weak it may be, will affect future track.  The stronger the system, the deeper it goes into the atmosphere, and will be steered by different “mean layers” other than what is steering it now.  Based on my analysis this evening of forecast steering currents, and 500 mb height and speed maps, a break in the subtropical ridge is forecast to occur, and should begin to allow whatever we have to begin moving more to the NW, which is shown in the 8:00 p.m. track guidance.  I prefer the TVCA/TVCE consensus model guidance which is with the tighter track.
00Z ATCF TRACK GUIDANCE

The following track guidance forecasts are the ECMWF ensemble, the GFS ensemble, and the CMC
ECMWF EPS

GEFS

CMC

While there is no need for alarm right now, until I see how the forecast pans out, I do recommend residents along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida monitor this closely.

I will continue to monitor this INVEST for any significant changes in forecast conditions, as well as the remainder of the tropics.  I will not be updating tomorrow evening, as I have personal business to attend to.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS