October 2, 2022

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HURRICANE FIONA FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 19, 2022…9:30 P.M. EDT

8 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. 

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

For severe weather forecasts, please use the SPC link below to stay updated on any severe weather threat.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good evening everyone!

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STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 19
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 –  5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:        7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 6
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS: 1

2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON NAMES:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season.

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

FIONA is now a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (96 mph – 100 mph).  Maximum sustained winds are now 105 mph.  As of the 8:00 p.m. intermediate advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on Hurricane FIONA:
8:00 PM AST Mon Sep 19
Location: 20.2°N 70.1°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 974 mb / 28.76 in
Max sustained: 105 mph

Recent satellite loop imagery indicates FIONA has recovered quickly, and is much better organized this evening, with a well defined core and CDO, with cloud tops continuing to cool:
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 FIONA SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
fiona.ir
fiona.vis
In the last few frames of visibly imagery, I did notice hot towers developing in the CDO, indicating the system continues to deepen.  Based on my analysis of the recent CIMSS wind shear and upper level winds maps, FIONA is still experiencing some WSW shear, with the center of the radial shear pattern south of the eye.  However, shear at the moment over the center does not seem to be affecting the vertical structure, and the shear tendency has been decreasing during the past 24 hours.  A good “plus”, is that very strong radial outflow is noted around the eastern periphery of the hurricane, and beginning to improve toward the southern periphery.  You can also detect this outflow in the satellite loop imagery.  Based on analysis of the recent SHIPS diagnostic information, shear is forecast during the next 2 and half days to remain moderate, but just below 20 kts.  This may not be enough to impose a “tilt” on the hurricane.  Both the ECMWF and GFS global models do indicate the shear pattern to improve somewhat, with an improving 200 mb outflow pattern.  Based on this, and the forecast for very high moisture content from the surface to the 500 mb level, SST’s of 29C – 30C, and OHC from 50 – 100 j/kg, FIONA should continue to strengthen.  At this time, I do not believe R.I. is poised to occur, however if these forecast conditions occur and persist, FIONA could show steady intensification, and could now have the possibility of attaining minimal category 4 status in 48 – 60 hours from the 5:00 p.m. advisory.  A good majority of the intensity guidance models bring her to high end CAT 3, with a few to minimal CAT 4 from the 18Z run.  Based on this, I agree with the NHC intensity forecast from 5:00 p.m.  This could change by the 11:00 p.m. regular advisory.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
FIONA.SHEAR
FIONA.UPPER
ECMWF AND GFS WIND SHEAR AND 200 MB STREAMLINE PATTERN FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-shear_850v200-3761600
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-z200_speed-3761600
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-shear_850v250-3783200
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-z200_speed-3783200
00Z INTENSITY GUIDANCE
aal07_2022092000_intensity_early
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

INIT  19/2100Z 20.1N  69.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 21.2N  70.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 22.8N  71.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 24.1N  71.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 25.7N  71.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  22/0600Z 27.6N  70.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 29.9N  68.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  23/1800Z 37.0N  62.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  24/1800Z 48.5N  58.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

Based on analysis of satellite loop imagery, and current steering layer mean, FIONA is moving to the NW, as per the NHC intermediate advisory.  FIONA is now moving toward a break in the subtropical ridge.  Based on forecast steering analysis, FIONA should continue per the NHC forecast track as the weakness becomes larger, and the steering flow will be moving FIONA between the subtropical ridge, and high pressure over the south central U.S.  Eventually, a deep layer trof will catch the storm, which should move the system off the the NNE as shown in the NHC tracking map.  Current track guidance indicates this scenario.
NHC TRACKING MAP
002038_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind
00Z TRACK GUIDANCE
aal07_2022092000_track_early
The following is from the NHC regarding WATCHES and WARNINGS currently in effect:

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Puerto Plata
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be nearing completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
beginning late tonight or early Tuesday.  Tropical storm and 
hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area 
in the Dominican Republic tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the 
southeastern Bahamas by early Tuesday.
RAINFALL:  Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:
British and U.S. Virgin Islands: Additional 2 to 4 inches.  Storm
Total up to 10 inches on St. Croix.
Southern Puerto Rico: Additional 4 to 8 inches with local maximum of
15 inches.  Storm Total 12 to 20 inches with local maximum of over
30 inches.
Northern Puerto Rico: Additional 1 to 4 inches with local maximum of
6 inches.  Storm Total 4 to 12 inches with local maximum of 20
inches.
Northern and Eastern Dominican Republic: Additional 4 to 8 inches
with local maximum of 10 inches.  Storm Total up to 20 inches in
the eastern section.
Rest of Dominican Republic and Eastern Haiti: 3 to 6 inches.
Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.
Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 3 inches.
These rains will continue to produce life-threatening and
catastrophic flooding along with mudslides and landslides across
Puerto Rico.  Life-threatening flash and urban flooding is likely
for eastern portions of the Dominican Republic.
STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Turks and Caicos tonight into Tuesday.
Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.
Localized coastal flooding is possible for the Southeastern Bahamas
in areas of onshore winds tonight into Tuesday.
SURF:  Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas.  These swells will continue
to spread westward across the southwestern Atlantic toward the
central and northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of the United
States through midweek.  The swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.

The following are graphics and links are from the NHC:
211704_key_messages_sm
211704_spanish_key_messages_sm
002038
002038.50KT
002038.64KT

LOCAL NWS HURRICANE PRODUCTS LINK (CLICK THE DARK BLUE HEADINGS)
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls2+shtml/182120.shtml?

The following map will allow to to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
Elsewhere, once FIONA begins to make her exit, I will be monitoring the tropical wave which will enter the Caribbean next week.  Both the ECMWF and GFS global models have been consistent in developing this wave in the Caribbean, and bringing it to the GOMEX  by days 7 – 10, as a powerful hurricane.  BOTH models currently resemble each other closely in the information.  Although this is out past the 5 day forecast zone I go by,  forecast conditions are calling for another high moisture regime, and although not present prior to the 5 day (120 hour) period in the forecast, the wind shear and upper level winds forecast at the moment are calling for an extremely, textbook favorable upper air pattern, which would support the surface feature.  These favorable conditions are forecast to begin developing at 120 hours.  Based on this, I am not willing to poo – poo this just yet.  I’ll monitor this for any significant changes as it is over a week away, so no need to ruffle our panties.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-mslp_norm_anom-4258400
ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-shear_850v200-4258400
ECMWF 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-z200_speed-4258400

I will continue to monitor FIONA and the remainder of the tropics for any significant changes to the forecast

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-09-20 01:21:31

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