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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 19
TOTAL HURRICANES : 7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES: 4 – 5
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 6
TOTAL HURRICANES: 3
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0
U. S. LANDFALLS: 1
2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON NAMES:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter
As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season.
2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will
FIONA is now a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (96 mph – 100 mph). Maximum sustained winds are now 105 mph. As of the 8:00 p.m. intermediate advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on Hurricane FIONA:
8:00 PM AST Mon Sep 19
Location: 20.2°N 70.1°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 974 mb / 28.76 in
Max sustained: 105 mph
Recent satellite loop imagery indicates FIONA has recovered quickly, and is much better organized this evening, with a well defined core and CDO, with cloud tops continuing to cool:
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 FIONA SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
In the last few frames of visibly imagery, I did notice hot towers developing in the CDO, indicating the system continues to deepen. Based on my analysis of the recent CIMSS wind shear and upper level winds maps, FIONA is still experiencing some WSW shear, with the center of the radial shear pattern south of the eye. However, shear at the moment over the center does not seem to be affecting the vertical structure, and the shear tendency has been decreasing during the past 24 hours. A good “plus”, is that very strong radial outflow is noted around the eastern periphery of the hurricane, and beginning to improve toward the southern periphery. You can also detect this outflow in the satellite loop imagery. Based on analysis of the recent SHIPS diagnostic information, shear is forecast during the next 2 and half days to remain moderate, but just below 20 kts. This may not be enough to impose a “tilt” on the hurricane. Both the ECMWF and GFS global models do indicate the shear pattern to improve somewhat, with an improving 200 mb outflow pattern. Based on this, and the forecast for very high moisture content from the surface to the 500 mb level, SST’s of 29C – 30C, and OHC from 50 – 100 j/kg, FIONA should continue to strengthen. At this time, I do not believe R.I. is poised to occur, however if these forecast conditions occur and persist, FIONA could show steady intensification, and could now have the possibility of attaining minimal category 4 status in 48 – 60 hours from the 5:00 p.m. advisory. A good majority of the intensity guidance models bring her to high end CAT 3, with a few to minimal CAT 4 from the 18Z run. Based on this, I agree with the NHC intensity forecast from 5:00 p.m. This could change by the 11:00 p.m. regular advisory.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ECMWF AND GFS WIND SHEAR AND 200 MB STREAMLINE PATTERN FORECAST
00Z INTENSITY GUIDANCE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 19/2100Z 20.1N 69.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 21.2N 70.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 22.8N 71.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 24.1N 71.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 25.7N 71.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 22/0600Z 27.6N 70.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 29.9N 68.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 37.0N 62.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 48.5N 58.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
Based on analysis of satellite loop imagery, and current steering layer mean, FIONA is moving to the NW, as per the NHC intermediate advisory. FIONA is now moving toward a break in the subtropical ridge. Based on forecast steering analysis, FIONA should continue per the NHC forecast track as the weakness becomes larger, and the steering flow will be moving FIONA between the subtropical ridge, and high pressure over the south central U.S. Eventually, a deep layer trof will catch the storm, which should move the system off the the NNE as shown in the NHC tracking map. Current track guidance indicates this scenario.
NHC TRACKING MAP
00Z TRACK GUIDANCE
The following is from the NHC regarding WATCHES and WARNINGS currently in effect:
WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Puerto Plata A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be nearing completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos beginning late tonight or early Tuesday. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southeastern Bahamas by early Tuesday. RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall: British and U.S. Virgin Islands: Additional 2 to 4 inches. Storm Total up to 10 inches on St. Croix. Southern Puerto Rico: Additional 4 to 8 inches with local maximum of 15 inches. Storm Total 12 to 20 inches with local maximum of over 30 inches. Northern Puerto Rico: Additional 1 to 4 inches with local maximum of 6 inches. Storm Total 4 to 12 inches with local maximum of 20 inches. Northern and Eastern Dominican Republic: Additional 4 to 8 inches with local maximum of 10 inches. Storm Total up to 20 inches in the eastern section. Rest of Dominican Republic and Eastern Haiti: 3 to 6 inches. Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches. Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 3 inches. These rains will continue to produce life-threatening and catastrophic flooding along with mudslides and landslides across Puerto Rico. Life-threatening flash and urban flooding is likely for eastern portions of the Dominican Republic. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos tonight into Tuesday. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Dominican Republic. Localized coastal flooding is possible for the Southeastern Bahamas in areas of onshore winds tonight into Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will continue to spread westward across the southwestern Atlantic toward the central and northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of the United States through midweek. The swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
The following are graphics and links are from the NHC:
LOCAL NWS HURRICANE PRODUCTS LINK (CLICK THE DARK BLUE HEADINGS)
The following map will allow to to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
Elsewhere, once FIONA begins to make her exit, I will be monitoring the tropical wave which will enter the Caribbean next week. Both the ECMWF and GFS global models have been consistent in developing this wave in the Caribbean, and bringing it to the GOMEX by days 7 – 10, as a powerful hurricane. BOTH models currently resemble each other closely in the information. Although this is out past the 5 day forecast zone I go by, forecast conditions are calling for another high moisture regime, and although not present prior to the 5 day (120 hour) period in the forecast, the wind shear and upper level winds forecast at the moment are calling for an extremely, textbook favorable upper air pattern, which would support the surface feature. These favorable conditions are forecast to begin developing at 120 hours. Based on this, I am not willing to poo – poo this just yet. I’ll monitor this for any significant changes as it is over a week away, so no need to ruffle our panties.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST
ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST
ECMWF 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST
I will continue to monitor FIONA and the remainder of the tropics for any significant changes to the forecast
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: email@example.com
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
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