October 2, 2022

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HURRICANE FIONA FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP.18, 2022…7:10 P.M. EDT

8 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. 

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

For severe weather forecasts, please use the SPC link below to stay updated on any severe weather threat.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good evening everyone!

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STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 19
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 –  5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:        7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 6
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS: 1

2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON NAMES:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season.

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

FIONA became a hurricane today, and is currently a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.  As of the 5:00 p.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, the following was available on Fiona:
5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 18
Location: 18.2°N 67.3°W
Moving: NW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 986 mb / 29.12 in
Max sustained:85 mph
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 IR AND VIS SATELLITE LOOP

fiona.ir
fiona.vis
NHC FORECAST TRACK / WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAP (LINKED TO INTERACTIVE MAP)
205919_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind

Maximum sustained winds were reported to be 85 mph, making her a CAT 1 hurricane (74-95mph)

Based on analysis of the recent CIMSS wind shear, FIONA is currently undergoing some shear, as she is located on the northern periphery of the radial shear pattern.  There is still some very good upper level outflow, however it is currently restricted to the eastern portion of the storm.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
FIONA.SHEAR
FIONA.UPPER
Depending on how much land interaction takes place with Hispaniola, will determine how much and how quickly FIONA intensifies after clearing that island.  FIONA is forecast to intensify.  Even though the last SHIPS diagnostic report indicates 15 – 20 kts of vertical shear to remain with FIONA over the next few days, she will be traversing 29C – 30C (84.2F – 86.0F) Sea Surface Temperatures, along with the radial shear pattern improving over the system, and a more favorable radial outflow pattern forecast over the hurricane, as well as high moisture content of the atmosphere.  The 200 mb forecast also shows a jetstreak just north of the radial pattern.  The hurricane will be in the right rear entrance region, which will basically pull air out of the top of the hurricane, or simply put, creating upper divergence.  Based on this, and the current forecast intensity guidance, FIONA may become the first major hurricane of the season, with the majority of the intensity guidance models tightly clustered.  The latest forecast from the GFS model indicates little to no zonal shear in the forecast.  The arrow in the graphic points to the area indicating no zonal wind shear.
ECMWF 200 MB FORECAST INDICATING RADIAL OUTFLOW
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-z200_speed-3761600
GFS ZONAL WIND SHEAR FORECAST
850200ushear24
18Z INTENSITY GUIDANCE
aal07_2022091818_intensity_early
Once again, should these conditions all come together and the hurricane has minimal disruption, I do believe FIONA will become a category three hurricane (111 – 129 MPH) in about 48 – 60 hours.  At the moment, I do agree with the NHC intensity forecast:
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

INIT  18/2100Z 18.2N  67.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 18.7N  68.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 20.0N  69.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  20/0600Z 21.4N  70.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  20/1800Z 22.8N  70.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  21/0600Z 24.1N  70.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  21/1800Z 25.7N  70.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  22/1800Z 30.0N  68.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  23/1800Z 37.5N  61.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

Based on the NHC advisory, FIONA was moving to the NW.  However, I am in some disagreement, as if you watch the satellite motion closely, the track appears to be more of a WNW motion.  Regardless, analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps indicate FIONA should continue this motion during the next 24 – 36 hours, before turning a little more northward (true NW) as the subtropical ridge currently steering her erodes on the western periphery, with a break in the ridge becoming much larger than it is right now.  Current track guidance is pretty well clustered indicating this, and I concur with the current NHC forecast track.  The animated GIF of the ECMWF 500 mb Geopotential Height  and Wind forecast map indicates the evolution of this.
CURRENT TRACK GUIDANCE
aal07_2022091818_track_early
ECMWF 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-z500_barbs-1663502400-1663534800-1663707600-40
The following is from the NHC regarding WATCHES and WARNINGS currently in effect:

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the  Turks and  Caicos and for the Southeastern Bahamas,
including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas,
Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo
Frances Viejo
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata
* Turks and Caicos
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are occurring on portions of Puerto 
Rico, and are expected in portions of the eastern Dominican Republic 
tonight and Monday.  Hurricane conditions are possible within the 
hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach portions of the
Dominican Republic within the next few hours.  Tropical storm 
conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands and portions 
of the southeastern Bahamas by early Tuesday. Tropical storm 
conditions are possible across the watch area in the Dominican 
Republic tonight. 

RAINFALL:  Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:
Leeward Islands: Additional 2 inches or less.
British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches, maximum of 10 inches
on St. Croix.
Puerto Rico: 12 to 18 inches with local maximum of 30 inches,
particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.
Northern and Eastern Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches with local
maximum 12 inches, particularly along the northeast coast.
Rest of Dominican Republic and Haiti: 1 to 3 inches.
Turks and Caicos: 3 to 6 inches.
These rains will produce life-threatening and catastrophic flash and
urban flooding across Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican
Republic, along with mudslides and landslides in areas of higher
terrain.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas
in areas of onshore winds if the peak surge occurs at the time of
high tide...
Cabo Rojo, Puerto Rico to Guayama, Puerto Rico...1 to 3 ft
Guayama, Puerto Rico to Fajardo, Puerto Rico including the islands 
of Vieques and Culebra...1 to 2 ft
Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto
Rico.  For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.
Localized coastal flooding will be possible along the coasts of the 
Turks and Caicos in areas of onshore winds Monday night into 
Tuesday.
SURF:  Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands,
the northern Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

The following are graphics and links are from the NHC:
205919_key_messages_sm
205919_spanish_key_messages_sm

205919.50kt
205919
LOCAL NWS HURRICANE PRODUCTS LINK (CLICK THE DARK BLUE HEADINGS)
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls2+shtml/182120.shtml?

The following map will allow to to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
CARIBBEAN RADAR MOSAIC (CLICK FOR LOOP)
radar_comp_Eng
I will continue to monitor FIONA and the remainder of the tropics for any significant changes to the forecast

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

 

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-09-18 22:57:48

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