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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 19
TOTAL HURRICANES : 7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES: 4 – 5
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 6
TOTAL HURRICANES: 3
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0
U. S. LANDFALLS: 1
2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON NAMES:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter
As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season.
2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will
FIONA became a hurricane today, and is currently a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. As of the 5:00 p.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, the following was available on Fiona:
5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 18
Location: 18.2°N 67.3°W
Moving: NW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 986 mb / 29.12 in
Max sustained:85 mph
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 IR AND VIS SATELLITE LOOP
NHC FORECAST TRACK / WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAP (LINKED TO INTERACTIVE MAP)
Maximum sustained winds were reported to be 85 mph, making her a CAT 1 hurricane (74-95mph)
Based on analysis of the recent CIMSS wind shear, FIONA is currently undergoing some shear, as she is located on the northern periphery of the radial shear pattern. There is still some very good upper level outflow, however it is currently restricted to the eastern portion of the storm.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
Depending on how much land interaction takes place with Hispaniola, will determine how much and how quickly FIONA intensifies after clearing that island. FIONA is forecast to intensify. Even though the last SHIPS diagnostic report indicates 15 – 20 kts of vertical shear to remain with FIONA over the next few days, she will be traversing 29C – 30C (84.2F – 86.0F) Sea Surface Temperatures, along with the radial shear pattern improving over the system, and a more favorable radial outflow pattern forecast over the hurricane, as well as high moisture content of the atmosphere. The 200 mb forecast also shows a jetstreak just north of the radial pattern. The hurricane will be in the right rear entrance region, which will basically pull air out of the top of the hurricane, or simply put, creating upper divergence. Based on this, and the current forecast intensity guidance, FIONA may become the first major hurricane of the season, with the majority of the intensity guidance models tightly clustered. The latest forecast from the GFS model indicates little to no zonal shear in the forecast. The arrow in the graphic points to the area indicating no zonal wind shear.
ECMWF 200 MB FORECAST INDICATING RADIAL OUTFLOW
GFS ZONAL WIND SHEAR FORECAST
18Z INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Once again, should these conditions all come together and the hurricane has minimal disruption, I do believe FIONA will become a category three hurricane (111 – 129 MPH) in about 48 – 60 hours. At the moment, I do agree with the NHC intensity forecast:
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 18/2100Z 18.2N 67.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 18.7N 68.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 20.0N 69.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 21.4N 70.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 22.8N 70.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 24.1N 70.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 25.7N 70.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 30.0N 68.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 37.5N 61.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
Based on the NHC advisory, FIONA was moving to the NW. However, I am in some disagreement, as if you watch the satellite motion closely, the track appears to be more of a WNW motion. Regardless, analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps indicate FIONA should continue this motion during the next 24 – 36 hours, before turning a little more northward (true NW) as the subtropical ridge currently steering her erodes on the western periphery, with a break in the ridge becoming much larger than it is right now. Current track guidance is pretty well clustered indicating this, and I concur with the current NHC forecast track. The animated GIF of the ECMWF 500 mb Geopotential Height and Wind forecast map indicates the evolution of this.
CURRENT TRACK GUIDANCE
ECMWF 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FORECAST
The following is from the NHC regarding WATCHES and WARNINGS currently in effect:
WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Turks and Caicos and for the Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo Frances Viejo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo westward to Puerto Plata A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo westward to Puerto Plata * Turks and Caicos * Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to Barahona
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring on portions of Puerto Rico, and are expected in portions of the eastern Dominican Republic tonight and Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach portions of the Dominican Republic within the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands and portions of the southeastern Bahamas by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the watch area in the Dominican Republic tonight. RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall: Leeward Islands: Additional 2 inches or less. British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches, maximum of 10 inches on St. Croix. Puerto Rico: 12 to 18 inches with local maximum of 30 inches, particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico. Northern and Eastern Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches with local maximum 12 inches, particularly along the northeast coast. Rest of Dominican Republic and Haiti: 1 to 3 inches. Turks and Caicos: 3 to 6 inches. These rains will produce life-threatening and catastrophic flash and urban flooding across Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic, along with mudslides and landslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas in areas of onshore winds if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cabo Rojo, Puerto Rico to Guayama, Puerto Rico...1 to 3 ft Guayama, Puerto Rico to Fajardo, Puerto Rico including the islands of Vieques and Culebra...1 to 2 ft Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto Rico. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Dominican Republic. Localized coastal flooding will be possible along the coasts of the Turks and Caicos in areas of onshore winds Monday night into Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands, the northern Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
The following are graphics and links are from the NHC:
LOCAL NWS HURRICANE PRODUCTS LINK (CLICK THE DARK BLUE HEADINGS)
The following map will allow to to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
CARIBBEAN RADAR MOSAIC (CLICK FOR LOOP)
I will continue to monitor FIONA and the remainder of the tropics for any significant changes to the forecast
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
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