July 21, 2024

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HURRICANE BERYL / INVEST 96L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL 01, 2024…12:15 P.M. EDT

8 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Good day everyone!

Please note!  In regard to the severe weather forecasts, I will try to have them back for ENHANCED areas or above, once some of the models I use for analysis come back up.  They are still down, and contain information I use to provide a more accurate forecast.  However, if there is action in the tropics, that will take precedence.

Please use the following links regarding severe weather activity:

SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

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Due to the amount of weather groups I belong to, and emails I have to send out, I am not able to post to everyone personally.  In posting personally, it takes about 1 hour to get my information out to everybody.  Thanks for your understanding.

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W’s SEASONAL FORECAST

TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 23 – 26
TOTAL HURRICANES :      12 – 15
MAJOR HURRICANES:        6 – 8

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS
NAMED STORMS:           3
HURRICANES:                 1
MAJOR HURRICANES:  1

The following are the storm names for the 2024 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

AlbertoHeleneOscar
BerylIsaacPatty
ChrisJoyceRafael
DebbyKirkSara
ErnestoLeslieTony
FrancineMiltonValerie
GordonNadineWilliam

For those who have followed my over the years, you know as a system approaches the islands, or the U.S. coast, the updates tend to become longer.  However the information is critical, and includes links to the NHC watch and warning areas with information regarding hazards affecting land such as wind, storm surge, rainfall, surf, tornadoes, and specific areas along with any changes to the advisory hazards.  I also post storm surge maps from SLOSH data software, forecast rainfall, watch and warnings maps, etc.  I will also post in general as part of the forecast, animated model maps of the system, current steering layer, etc.  In the meantime, I did a little change, and have posted very good hurricane preparedness links to the site.  Please click the following link to access this information.
https://stormw.wordpress.com/stormws-toolbox/

Good morning!

We did briefly have Tropical Storm CHRIS in the BOC, which has moved inland over Mexico.

MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL
BERYL remains a major CAT 4 hurricane.

As of the 12:00 p.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on MAJOR HURRICANE Beryl:
12:00 PM AST Mon Jul 1
Location: 12.5°N 61.7°W
Moving: WNW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 950 mb /  28.05 in
Max sustained: 150 mph
BERYL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

BERYL.IR
35717832
Satellite loop imagery indicates an annular hurricane indicating a very strong system.  BERYL has become an extremely dangerous CAT 4 hurricane.  Winds have increased to 150 mph.  BERYL had completed an EWRC (EyeWall Replacement Cycle) earlier this morning.  Once these occur, a strong hurricane CAN become stronger, and tighten up very well.
CURRENT UPDATED WIND RADII
02L-2DWIND

PLEASE click the links below, as they contain the public advisory which contains information on WIND, STORM SURGE, RAINFALL and SURF conditions.  I do not have storm surge graphic data as the SLOSH software data does not storm info that far south in the Caribbean.
The following watches and warnings are in effect:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada
* Tobago
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Trinidad
* St. Lucia
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward
to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, the Cayman
Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should
closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today or tonight.

NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK (ENGLISH)
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/011456.shtml

AVISO PUBLICO
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATASAT2+shtml/011458.shtml?

UPDATE STATEMENT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT2+shtml/011552.shtml

TROPICAL ACTUALIZACION
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATUSAT2+shtml/011553.shtml?

145928_key_messages_sm
145928_spanish_key_messages_sm
Based on my analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps, BERYL has begun a more WNW track shortly, and should continue on WNW track during the next 48 – 60 hours as she is affected by a weakness in the ridge.  Thereafter, a ridge builds back over the Gulf coast region, and should provide a more westerly flow, with BERYL briefly bending a little more left.  I know folks are beginning to question, will she affect the U.S. (mainly TX).  Right now it is still too early to tell, as we will have to see what effect the Yucatan Peninsula may have on the storm, as to what her strength will be.  A weaker system will keep the tendency to move more westward.  It will also depend on what the steering currents do around that time.  Storms are steered at different layer means…the weaker a system, the lower the steering layer is.  A storm at BERYL’s current strength for instance is steered at the 850 – 250 mb level, while a system like INVEST 96L is steered at the 850 – 700 mb level.  Based on this analysis, I agree with the NHC forecast track, and the TVCA / TVCE consensus guidance.
NHC FORECAST TRACKING MAP
145928_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind
RAL 12Z ATCF TRACK GUIDANCE
aal02_2024070112_track_early
Analysis of current CIMSS wind shear product indicates the radial shear pattern has now become zonal, however shear is very low.  This is earlier than what the global models are still forecasting.  Upper level winds still indicate some northern outflow, and marginal outflow to the south.  Given this, along with the extremely warm waters, this negating the light shear.
CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND WIND SHEAR
BERYL.UPPER
BERYL.SHEAR
Based on my analysis of forecast conditions from both the ECMWF and GFS global models, conditions are forecast to become less favorable, mainly in the area of wind shear, which is forecast to increase over the next 24 – 36 hours to approximately 20 – 25 knots.  Based on the very warm SST’s and OHC, and the forecast of continued high PWAT, 850 – 500mb relative humidity, and forecast northern outflow channel, only slow weakening should occur, and this is shown in the latest NHC intensity forecast.
SHEAR FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-shear_850v200-0051200
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

INIT  01/1500Z 12.4N  61.3W  130 KT 150 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 13.3N  64.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 14.5N  67.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 15.6N  71.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 16.4N  75.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  04/0000Z 17.2N  79.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 17.8N  82.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 19.0N  88.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
120H  06/1200Z 20.5N  93.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER

The longer range guidance does suggest BERYL enters the BOC, and both the ECMWF and GFS indicate conditions to become more favorable again.  I will address this when the time comes close, as this is at least 6 days out in the forecast period.  I will continue to monitor BERYL for any significant changes in intensity and track guidance.

The NHC has designated a MEDIUM (60%) probability of INVEST 96L developing into a tropical cyclone as of 8:00 a.m. EDT.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)
two_atl_7d1
As of the 8:00 a.m. EDT ATCF BTK report, the following was available in INVEST 96L:
8:00 AM EDT Mon Jul 01
Location: 9.7°N; 38.4°W
Moving: NW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb / 29.83 in
Max sustained: 30 mph
INVEST 96L was moving toward the NW (305 deg.) at 17 mph.  Based on my analysis of the current forecast steering layer, and forecast steering maps, INVEST 96L should begin a more WNW track in about 24 – 36 hours, and should maintain this during the next 4 – 5 days.  Based on this, I prefer the TVCA / TVCE guidance at the moment
12Z ATCF TRACK GUIDANCE
aal96_2024070112_track_early
Satellite loop imagery indicates an ill defined and disorganized system at the moment.  However, if conditions improve as forecast, some slow development could begin.  Based on my analysis of current conditions and forecast maps regarding wind shear, PWAT, 850 – 500 mb relative humidity values from both the ECMWF and GFS global models, the models indicate a brief disruption in the current radial shear pattern, however once INVEST 96L approaches very close to the Lesser Antilles, or just after crossing the islands, the wind shear pattern is forecast to again become favorable.  Upper level winds are forecast to remain zonal, indicating a lack of any real outflow aloft  Based on this, and the continuation of high moisture in the forecast, INVEST 96L COULD attain minimal Tropical Storm status in about 72 hours, which is currently suggested by intensity guidance.  The system is currently struggling with some slight dry air intrusion.
INVEST 96L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
INVEST.96L.IR
INVEST.96L.VIS
CURRENT WIND SHEAR
INVEST96L.SHEAR
I will continue to monitor INVEST 96L closely, for any significant changes in forecast conditions.

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
canvas
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
radar_comp_Eng
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 

 

 

 

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2024-07-01 16:16:33

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