July 21, 2024

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HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL 05, 2024…12:50 P.M. EDT

8 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Good day everyone!
Please note!  I may not be able to provide severe weather updates, as given the state of the hurricane season, the tropics take precedence.

Please use the following links regarding severe weather activity:

SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

For those who follow me on Facebook, I must ask that you please bookmark this wordpress site, send an email to the address at the bottom of the page to be put on the client email list, or visit my site on Facebook.  https://www.facebook.com/groups/950628219042775

Due to the amount of weather groups I belong to, and emails I have to send out, I am not able to post to everyone personally.  In posting personally, it takes about 1 hour to get my information out to everybody.  Thanks for your understanding.

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W’s SEASONAL FORECAST

TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 23 – 26
TOTAL HURRICANES :      12 – 15
MAJOR HURRICANES:        6 – 8

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS
NAMED STORMS:           3
HURRICANES:                 1
MAJOR HURRICANES:  1

U.S. LANDFALLS:  0
The following are the storm names for the 2024 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

AlbertoHeleneOscar
BerylIsaacPatty
ChrisJoyceRafael
DebbyKirkSara
ErnestoLeslieTony
FrancineMiltonValerie
GordonNadineWilliam

For those who have followed my over the years, you know as a system approaches the islands, or the U.S. coast, the updates tend to become longer.  However the information is critical, and includes links to the NHC watch and warning areas with information regarding hazards affecting land such as wind, storm surge, rainfall, surf, tornadoes, and specific areas along with any changes to the advisory hazards.  I also post storm surge maps from SLOSH data software, forecast rainfall, watch and warnings maps, etc.  I will also post in general as part of the forecast, animated model maps of the system, current steering layer, etc.  In the meantime, I did a little change, and have posted very good hurricane preparedness links to the site.  Please click the following link to access this information.
https://stormw.wordpress.com/stormws-toolbox/

Good morning!
FIRST, I want to caution the reader, to read this synopsis very carefully, do to some unknown variables.  The forecasts are going to be a little longer now due to an increase in forecast graphics.  I know, it may be a pain and maybe even boring, but the info could keep you out of harms way.

HURRICANE BERYL
As of the 11:00 a.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on HURRICANE BERYL:
1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 4
Location: 20.7°N 88.3°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 980 mb /  28.94 in
Max sustained: 85 mph

BERYL was located over the Yucatan Peninsula, and has weakened to a CATEGORY 1 hurricane.  Maximum sustained winds were reported as 85 mph.

PLEASE click the links below, as they contain the public advisory which contains information on WIND, STORM SURGE, RAINFALL and SURF conditions. The following watches and warnings are in effect:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for… * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Allen to Cancun, including Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for… * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for… * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Campeche

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

Interests in northeastern Mexico and the lower and middle Texas coast should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be issued for that region later today.

NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/051448.shtml?

AVISO PUBLICO
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATASAT2+shtml/051452.shtml?

145521_key_messages_sm
145521_spanish_key_messages_sm

145521WPCQPF_sm
d3ewbg
d4wbg
d5wbg
BERYL IR / VIS SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
BERYL.IR
BERYL.VIS
Satellite loop imagery indicates the hurricanes structure doesn’t look all that ragged, especially for being over land, though the NHC reports that the HH aircraft indicates no eyewall and core becoming degraded.

After BERYL enters the GOMEX, and I get a better idea of actual intensity, I will be posting storm surge maps from SLOSH software.  Here is an example of the graphics.  The graphic was a TEST only, to see if the software still functioned.  Please disregard this particular one:
BERYL.displayCAT1mean
FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS
ecmwf-wave-gulf-sig_height_wave_dir-1720137600-1720202400-1720569600-80
ww3-gulf-ww3_sig_wave_height_dir-1720159200-1720202400-1720569600-40

Based on my analysis of the current steering layer, the ridge that was over the Gulf coast region has weakened, and is now centered over FL.  Based on the weakness, and direct flow over BERYL, this yields a track of about 285 – 290 degrees.  Based on analysis of forecast steering maps, BERYL should continue this WNW motion for the next 24 – 36 hours, and then begin a more NW motion by 48 hours into the forecast period.  Analysis of current track guidance indicates another shift toward the right.  Based on my analysis, although I agree with the NHC forecast track, I am on the right side of the tightly clustered package (just right of the TVCA).  Based on this shift (and this is where some of the uncertainty lies), this tells me one or two things.  Either the weakness is forecast to be stronger than originally forecast, or BERYL will become stronger in the GOMEX than originally forecast.  The NHC also mentions in their update adjustments could be made: Overall the guidance favors the more northward motion and has shifted a little to the right, and the new official forecast also is nudged a little to the right of the previous forecast. Additional adjustments of the forecast track could be necessary later today.
CURRENT STEERING LAYER

wg8dlm3
NHC FORECAST TRACK MAP
145521_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind
ATCF 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

aal02_2024070512_track_early
I recommend residents in southern Texas from Rockport, southward, monitor BERYL for any significant changes. I currently have to agree with the NHC forecast track based on my analysis this morning, but I’m just a little right of the TVCA guidance.  IF this forecast track continues and pans out, NHC could issue Hurricane, Tropical Storm, and Storm Surge Watches a along the Texas coast sometime later TODAY.  
IF Hurricane Watch is issued for your area, you should begin preparations.  One of these should be turning your refrigerator and freezer to their highest settings, and limit opening a closing the doors.  The link for my toolbox (STORMW’s toolbox), is at the beginning of this page, and contains numerous preparation documents.

Analysis of current CIMSS wind shear product indicates shear is only around 15kts – 20kts over the center, out of the south. Mid level shear was analyzed still at only 10 kts over the center.  BERYL’s outflow has become just slightly better, however, it is noted that upper divergence has increased and become more symmetric over the past 6 hours or so.  This kind of gives me an indication, that the environment may not be as damaging as first thought.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT and UPPER DIVERGENCE COMPARISON
BERYL.SHEAR

BERYL.OHC
06Z
wg8dvg-2
12Z
wg8dvgBased on my analysis of forecast conditions from both the ECMWF and GFS global models, conditions are forecast to become favorable after BERYL enters the GOMEX.  The wind shear and upper level pattern begin to slowly improve at first, then begin to improve a little quicker bout halfway through her trek across the Gulf.  At approximately 12 hours prior to landfall, the conditions improve greatly according the the forecast, with a textbook radial shear pattern, much improved upper level outflow, and ample moisture.  The forecast does indicate some drier air qt 500 mb around the SE periphery, however models do not indicate the drier air penetrating the core.  Another item I haven’t seen mentioned, is the shape of the coastline.  As BERYL approaches landfall, the shape of the coast will aid in what we term as “forced convergence”.  To my understanding, the shape of the coast, and counter-clockwise flow “force” air back toward the center of the hurricane.  As a result, vertical motion can increase.  From NOAA / NWS: Convergence in a horizontal wind field indicates that more air is entering a given area than is leaving at that level. To compensate for the resulting “excess,” vertical motion may result: upward forcing if convergence is at low levels

Should the forecast conditions come to fruition, especially near landfall, BERYL could become stronger than forecast.  Based on this, I would expect BERYL to begin to ramp up about 6 – 12 hours prior to landfall.  AGAIN, all the parameters would have to come together…perfectly.  Again, here is where one of discrepancies is regarding track.  The deeper the system, the more of a poleward motion.  Though I respect the NHC intensity forecast, based on these uncertainties, I cannot rule out BERYL attaining CAT 2 status right near or at landfall, and the possibility could exist for a run toward CAT 3.  Again, THIS IS ALL GOING TO DEPEND ON HOW SHE SURVIVES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA,  and IF MODELS ARE CORRECT IN FORECAST CONDITIONS.
SHEAR FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-shear_850v200-0375200
gfs-deterministic-gulf-shear_850v200-0375200
200 MB STREAMLINE PATTERN (OUTFLOW)
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-z200_speed-0375200
gfs-deterministic-gulf-z200_speed-0375200
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

INIT  05/1500Z 20.7N  88.3W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 12H  06/0000Z 21.4N  90.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 24H  06/1200Z 22.5N  92.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 23.6N  94.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 24.6N  95.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  08/0000Z 25.6N  96.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 26.8N  97.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...NEAR COAST
 96H  09/1200Z 29.0N  98.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
120H  10/1200Z 31.0N  97.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

I will continue to monitor BERYL for any significant changes to the forecast.

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
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RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
radar_comp_Eng
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 

 

 

 

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2024-07-05 16:49:18

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