July 21, 2024

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HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL 04, 2024…9:55 A.M. EDT

8 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Good day everyone!
HAPPY FOURTH OF JULY!

Please note!  I may not be able to provide severe weather updates, as given the state of the hurricane season, the tropics take precedence.

Please use the following links regarding severe weather activity:

SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

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Due to the amount of weather groups I belong to, and emails I have to send out, I am not able to post to everyone personally.  In posting personally, it takes about 1 hour to get my information out to everybody.  Thanks for your understanding.

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W’s SEASONAL FORECAST

TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 23 – 26
TOTAL HURRICANES :      12 – 15
MAJOR HURRICANES:        6 – 8

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS
NAMED STORMS:           3
HURRICANES:                 1
MAJOR HURRICANES:  1

The following are the storm names for the 2024 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

AlbertoHeleneOscar
BerylIsaacPatty
ChrisJoyceRafael
DebbyKirkSara
ErnestoLeslieTony
FrancineMiltonValerie
GordonNadineWilliam

For those who have followed my over the years, you know as a system approaches the islands, or the U.S. coast, the updates tend to become longer.  However the information is critical, and includes links to the NHC watch and warning areas with information regarding hazards affecting land such as wind, storm surge, rainfall, surf, tornadoes, and specific areas along with any changes to the advisory hazards.  I also post storm surge maps from SLOSH data software, forecast rainfall, watch and warnings maps, etc.  I will also post in general as part of the forecast, animated model maps of the system, current steering layer, etc.  In the meantime, I did a little change, and have posted very good hurricane preparedness links to the site.  Please click the following link to access this information.
https://stormw.wordpress.com/stormws-toolbox/

Good morning!
MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL
As of the 8:00 a.m. EDT intermediate advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL:
8:00 AM EDT Thu Jul 4
Location: 18.7°N 81.8°W
Moving: WNW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 968 mb /  28.59 in
Max sustained: 120 mph
PLEASE click the links below, as they contain the public advisory which contains information on WIND, STORM SURGE, RAINFALL and SURF conditions. The following watches and warnings are in effect:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa
Maya to Cancun, including Cozumel
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Cabo Catoche
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Campeche
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should closely
monitor the progress of Beryl.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/041156.shtml?

AVISO PUBLICO
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATASAT2+shtml/041157.shtml?

115721_key_messages_sm
115721_spanish_key_messages_sm
BERYL IR / VIS SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
BERYL.IR
BERYL.VIS
CURRENT UPDATED WIND RADII
02L-2DWIND
Satellite loop imagery indicates the hurricanes structure is less symmetric, and not as organized due to the wind shear.  Although the eye has become cloud filled, some deep convection
remains around the eyewall.  It appears the eye is open on the SE portion.  However, in the last couple of frames in the visible imagery, it appears her structure is trying to slowly improve.

Based on my analysis of the current steering layer, the ridge over the Gulf coast region has strengthened and shifted east.  The flow looks more westerly.  However, you can see the weakness over northern Mexico.  Since the hurricane will take the path of least resistance, you have to average in that direction toward the weakness, and the steering flow.  Analysis of forecast steering still indicates the ridge to continue shifting east.  As this occurs, a series of shortwave troughs approaching by the weekend, will create a stronger weakness on the western periphery of the ridge, causing BERYL to begin a more NW course in the GOMEX.  There is less spread in the model guidance over the Gulf, but NHC states by day 4, average track error will be approximately 150 miles.
CURRENT STEERING LAYER
wg8dlm4
NHC FORECAST TRACK MAP
115721_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind
ATCF 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE
aal02_2024070412_track_early
I still recommend residents in southern Texas from Corpus Christi, southward, monitor BERYL for any significant changes. I currently have to agree with the NHC forecast track based on my analysis this morning, but I’m just a little right of the TVCA guidance.  IF this forecast track continues and pans out, NHC could issue Tropical Storm watches or a possible Hurricane watch (based on the 5:00 a.m. intensity forecast) for a portion of the south Texas coast within the next 48 -60 hours, as given the forecast conditions, the possibility of BERYL re-strengthening to a CATEGORY 1 hurricane cannot be ruled out.

Analysis of current CIMSS wind shear product indicates shear is around 20 kts – 25 kts over the center. Mid level shear was analyzed at 10 – 12 kts.  BERYL’s outflow has deteriorated to the south, but the upper air map indicates a well defined northern outflow channel.  BERYL will remain in high ocean heat content until she reaches the Yucatan Peninsula.
CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WINDS, WIND SHEAR and OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
BERYL.UPPER
BERYL.SHEAR
BERYL.OHC

Based on my analysis of forecast conditions from both the ECMWF and GFS global models, conditions are forecast to remain less favorable regarding shear.  Based on the global models, and most recent SHIPS diagnostic report, it appears drier air may have lessened somewhat at the mid level.  In about 24 hours, the wind shear pattern is forecast to begin changing, and by the time BERYL enters the GOMEX, a radial shear pattern is forecast to develop, and though not optimal, a 200 mb outflow pattern is forecast.  BERYL will also be under the influence of the Right Rear entrance region of the jetstream.  This will allow for upper divergence over the GOMEX.  This will help “ventilate” the storm.
SHEAR FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-shear_850v200-0299600
gfs-deterministic-gulf-shear_850v200-0299600
200 MB STREAMLINE PATTERN (OUTFLOW)
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-z200_speed-0299600
gfs-deterministic-gulf-z200_speed-0299600
JETSTREAM (RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION TOWARD GOMEX)
ecmwf-deterministic-exatl-z200_speed-0299600
Both models still indicate high RH values at 850 mb, and high PWAT as far as surface moisture.  Both models now indicate an improvement of moisture at the 500 mb level.  OHC is forecast to be around
50 – 60 KJ/cm2, which is the minimum required for a hurricane to rapidly intensify.  I DO NOT expect rapid intensification in the Gulf, just giving you an indication of the favorability of the OHC.  Based on the analysis of atmospheric forecast conditions, BERYL has the potential to become a CAT 1 hurricane in the GOMEX
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST AS OF 5:00 A.M.

INIT  04/0900Z 18.5N  81.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 19.0N  83.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 19.5N  86.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 20.3N  89.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 48H  06/0600Z 21.2N  91.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  06/1800Z 22.3N  93.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 23.3N  95.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 25.2N  97.6W   65 KT  75 MPH...NEAR COAST
120H  09/0600Z 27.0N  99.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

I will continue to monitor BERYL for any significant changes to the forecast.

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
canvas
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
radar_comp_Eng
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 

 

 

 

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2024-07-04 13:52:43

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