July 21, 2024

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HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL 03, 2024…11:35 A.M. EDT

8 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Good day everyone!

Please note!  I may not be able to provide severe weather updates, as given the state of the hurricane season, the tropics take precedence.

Please use the following links regarding severe weather activity:

SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

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Due to the amount of weather groups I belong to, and emails I have to send out, I am not able to post to everyone personally.  In posting personally, it takes about 1 hour to get my information out to everybody.  Thanks for your understanding.

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W’s SEASONAL FORECAST

TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 23 – 26
TOTAL HURRICANES :      12 – 15
MAJOR HURRICANES:        6 – 8

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS
NAMED STORMS:           3
HURRICANES:                 1
MAJOR HURRICANES:  1

The following are the storm names for the 2024 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

AlbertoHeleneOscar
BerylIsaacPatty
ChrisJoyceRafael
DebbyKirkSara
ErnestoLeslieTony
FrancineMiltonValerie
GordonNadineWilliam

For those who have followed my over the years, you know as a system approaches the islands, or the U.S. coast, the updates tend to become longer.  However the information is critical, and includes links to the NHC watch and warning areas with information regarding hazards affecting land such as wind, storm surge, rainfall, surf, tornadoes, and specific areas along with any changes to the advisory hazards.  I also post storm surge maps from SLOSH data software, forecast rainfall, watch and warnings maps, etc.  I will also post in general as part of the forecast, animated model maps of the system, current steering layer, etc.  In the meantime, I did a little change, and have posted very good hurricane preparedness links to the site.  Please click the following link to access this information.
https://stormw.wordpress.com/stormws-toolbox/

Good morning!
MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL
As of the 11:00 a.m. EDT intermediate advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL:
11:00 AM EDT Wed Jul 3
Location: 17.1°N 76.1°W
Moving: WNW at 18 mph
Min pressure: 954 mb /  28.17 in
Max sustained: 145 mph
PLEASE click the links below, as they contain the public advisory which contains information on WIND, STORM SURGE, RAINFALL and SURF conditions. The following watches and warnings are in effect:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Grand Cayman
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa
Maya to Cancun
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Cabo Catoche
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Cabo Catoche
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico west of Cabo
Catoche to Campeche
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should closely 
monitor the progress of Beryl.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/031446.shtml?

AVISO PUBLICO
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATASAT2+shtml/031447.shtml?
144917_key_messages_sm
144917_spanish_key_messages_sm
BERYL IR, VIS AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
BERYL.IR
BERYL.VIS
17937696
CURRENT UPDATED WIND RADII
02L-2DWIND
Satellite loop imagery indicates the hurricane is more elongated.  Although the eye has become cloud filled, some deep convection
remains around the eyewall.  Based on water vapor imagery, she is still fighting dry air, but seems to be moistening just enough of an area to be surviving the way she has.

Based on my analysis of the current steering layer, the ridge over the Gulf coast region has strengthened and shifted a little bit south.  The flow is now more WNW.  Analysis of forecast steering is still indicates the ridge to continue shifting east.  As this occurs, and approaching by the weekend, will create a weakness on the western periphery of the ridge, causing BERYL to begin a more NW course in the GOMEX.  There is still significant spread in the model guidance over the Gulf, as models are still struggling with forecast intensity.  Again, future track is all going to depend on how organized BERYL remains, and her actual strength after entering the GOMEX. IF weaker than forecast, she will have the tendency to be south of the guidance envelope, if stronger, on the northern side of the envelope.
CURRENT STEERING LAYER
wg8dlm6
NHC FORECAST TRACK MAP
144917_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind

ATCF 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE
aal02_2024070312_track_early
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE  FROM 06Z
AL02_2024070306_ECENS_0-120h_large

AL02_2024070306_GEFS_0-120h_large
Based on the spread in model guidance, especially the ECMWF EPS and GEFS ensembles I recommend residents in southern Texas from Corpus Christi southward, monitor BERYL for any significant changes as guidance appears to have shifted ever so slightly north.  I currently have to agree with the NHC forecast track, and prefer the TVCA in guidance, until the forecast steering pattern maps come into better agreement.  Again, this spread in the guidance is due to the models struggling with the intensity forecast.

Analysis of current CIMSS wind shear product indicates shear is around 20 kts – 25 kts over the center.  It was noted that mid level shear however was 5 kts – 10 kts.  A northern and southern outflow channel was observed at the 200 mb level.  The high ocean heat content is also a very positive factor.
CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WINDS, WIND SHEAR and OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
BERYL.UPPER
BERYL.SHEAR
BERYL.OHC
Based on my analysis of forecast conditions from both the ECMWF and GFS global models, conditions are forecast to remain less favorable regarding shear and some slight dry air during the next 36 hours (approximately).  Thereafter, the models are calling for an improvement of the shear pattern, in that a radial shear pattern slowly begins to develop.  Upon crossing the Yucatan Peninsula, the radial pattern continues to develop, and then becomes well substantiated over the southern GOMEX.  Analysis of the 200 mb streamline maps indicate a northern outflow channel develops.
SHEAR FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-shear_850v200-0256400
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-shear_850v200-0256400
200 MB STREAMLINE PATTERN (OUTFLOW)
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-z200_speed-0256400
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-z200_speed-0256400
Both models still indicate high RH values at 850 mb, and high PWAT as far as surface moisture.  Both models do indicate however, the presence of drier air to the south of the center which BERYL could struggle with depending on depth of intrusion.  Given the premise of outflow and radial shear pattern in the forecast, limited OHC could help somewhat with the drier air.

Based on the analysis of atmospheric forecast conditions, especially the very high OHC she will be traversing for the next 30 – 36 hours, I do believe BERYL will continue to weaken a little more steady than previously forecast due to increasing shear. However once entering the GOMEX, should conditions come to fruition, re-strengthening should occur, and BERYL has the potential to become a CAT 1 hurricane in the GOMEX
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

INIT  03/1500Z 17.1N  76.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 17.8N  78.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 18.5N  82.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 19.0N  85.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 19.7N  88.2W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 60H  06/0000Z 20.5N  90.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  06/1200Z 21.5N  92.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 23.5N  96.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 25.5N  98.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND

I will continue to monitor BERYL for any significant changes to the forecast.

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
canvas
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
radar_comp_Eng
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 

 

 

 

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2024-07-03 15:31:30

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