July 21, 2024

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HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL 02, 2024…9:05 A.M. EDT

7 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Good day everyone!

Please note!  I may not be able to provide severe weather updates, as given the state of the hurricane season, the tropics take precedence.

Please use the following links regarding severe weather activity:

SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

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Due to the amount of weather groups I belong to, and emails I have to send out, I am not able to post to everyone personally.  In posting personally, it takes about 1 hour to get my information out to everybody.  Thanks for your understanding.

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W’s SEASONAL FORECAST

TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 23 – 26
TOTAL HURRICANES :      12 – 15
MAJOR HURRICANES:        6 – 8

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS
NAMED STORMS:           3
HURRICANES:                 1
MAJOR HURRICANES:  1

The following are the storm names for the 2024 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

AlbertoHeleneOscar
BerylIsaacPatty
ChrisJoyceRafael
DebbyKirkSara
ErnestoLeslieTony
FrancineMiltonValerie
GordonNadineWilliam

For those who have followed my over the years, you know as a system approaches the islands, or the U.S. coast, the updates tend to become longer.  However the information is critical, and includes links to the NHC watch and warning areas with information regarding hazards affecting land such as wind, storm surge, rainfall, surf, tornadoes, and specific areas along with any changes to the advisory hazards.  I also post storm surge maps from SLOSH data software, forecast rainfall, watch and warnings maps, etc.  I will also post in general as part of the forecast, animated model maps of the system, current steering layer, etc.  In the meantime, I did a little change, and have posted very good hurricane preparedness links to the site.  Please click the following link to access this information.
https://stormw.wordpress.com/stormws-toolbox/

Good morning!

Since INVEST 96L isn’t doing much, this will focus on Hurricane BERYL.

MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL
BERYL becomes the season’s first CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE.

As of the 8:00 a.m. EDT intermediate advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on MAJOR HURRICANE Beryl:
8:00 AM AST Tue Jul 2
Location: 15.0°N 67.9°W
Moving: WNW at 22 mph
Min pressure: 934 mb /  27.58 in
Max sustained: 165 mph
BERYL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

BERYL.IR

INVEST.96L.VISSatellite loop imagery still indicates an annular hurricane indicating a very strong system.  BERYL has become an extremely dangerous CAT 5 hurricane.  Winds have increased to 165 mph.  It is noted in water vapor imagery that BERYL is surrounded by dry air, and given now lighter colors showing up on the west portion of the CDO, there COULD be the possibility she may begin to ingest some drier air.  This will depend on whether or not she can moisten the surrounding atmosphere
CURRENT UPDATED WIND RADII
02L-2DWIND
Based on my analysis of the current steering layer, the weakness in the ridge has amplified, and has become a little more SE to NW, hence the shift northward in the NHC forecast track, and model guidance.  Analysis of forecast steering is still indicating the ridge over the LA area will build and shift east, which should bring BERYL back more toward the W for a more WNW track.  BERYL should enter the BOC / Southern GOMEX by Saturday. Based on the forecast steering near the end of the period 120 – 144 hours, there is a significant spread in track guidance, and forecast steering models show varying track motion.  This is all going to depend on BERYL’s strength, and strength and orientation of the building ridge.  NHC even mentions this in their discussion from 5:00 a.m.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/020859.shtml?
CURRENT STEERING LAYER
wg8dlm6
Based on the spread in model guidance, I recommend residents in extreme southern Texas monitor BERYL for any significant changes.  Based on what I have analyzed this morning however, I currently agree with the NHC forecast track and the TVCA which is currently in the middle of the guidance package as of 06Z.
NHC FORECAST TRACK MAP
115445_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind

06Z ATCF TRACK GUIDANCE
aal02_2024070206_track_early
atcf-beryl02l-1719900000-9900000
PLEASE click the links below, as they contain the public advisory which contains information on WIND, STORM SURGE, RAINFALL and SURF conditions.  I do not have storm surge graphic data as the SLOSH software data does not storm info that far south in the Caribbean.
The following watches and warnings are in effect:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward
to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean should closely
monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches or warnings may be
required later today.

NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK (ENGLISH)
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/021149.shtml?

AVISO PUBLICO
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATASAT2+shtml/021150.shtml?
115445_key_messages_sm
115445_spanish_key_messages_sm

Analysis of current CIMSS wind shear product indicates the radial shear pattern has now become zonal, however shear is very low, and is displaying a diffluent pattern.  Mid level shear was only on the order of 5 – 10 kts.  Given that the 200 mb wind pattern has improved and expanded, outflow is very good over the hurricane.  The high ocean heat content is also a very positive factor.  These conditions are the most likely reason BERYL had continued to intensify.
CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND WIND SHEAR
BERYL.UPPER
BERYL.SHEAR
BERYL.OHC
Based on my analysis of forecast conditions from both the ECMWF and GFS global models, conditions are forecast to become less favorable soon.  The models do indicate the increase in shear, and this could affect BERYL in as little as 24 or less.  Both models indicate the intrusion of drier air at 500 mb, however they call for this to occur in about 21 – 24 hours.
SHEAR FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-shear_850v200-9932400
The intensity models have done a poor job on this one.  I probably could have done a little better on forecasting intensity, however keep in mind, I’m only one forecaster, vs the half a dozen or more at the NHC. So, I have no way to continually monitor the atmospheric conditions.  When I perform my analyses, many things can change between the time of my initial analysis, to the next day.  As I have mentioned in past forecasts, I have seen thing take big changes in as little as 24 hours.  Based on forecast conditions however, if the models are accurate on timing, BERYL (COULD) begin slow weakening later today / tonight.  However, I am going to monitor this, as in the current forecast track, she is supposed to traverse some very high OHC.  IF the forecast conditions are off by much, we’ll have to see if she could try to strengthen slightly between 70W – 75W.  Based on the slight uncertainties, I have to concur with the NHC intensity forecast.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

INIT  02/0900Z 14.6N  66.9W  145 KT 165 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 15.5N  69.6W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 16.5N  73.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 17.4N  76.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 18.2N  80.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  04/1800Z 18.7N  83.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 19.3N  86.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 21.2N  91.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 23.0N  95.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

I will continue to monitor BERYL for any significant changes in intensity and track guidance.

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
canvas
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
radar_comp_Eng
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 

 

 

 

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2024-07-02 12:57:18

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