July 21, 2024

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Weather News & Forecast

Hurricane and Storm Warnings Issued For the Texas Coast

3 min read

Visible satellite imagery seems to indicate that strong convection is wrapping completely around the center. I am anxious to get the recon mission in the storm to see what is going on. The SHIPS Intensity Forecast indicates a fairly decent chance of rapid intensification. Dr, Ryan Maue reminded us that 2017’s Hurricane Harvey didn’t look as good as Beryl does 48 hours before landfall. There is a chance that Beryl could be much stronger at landfall than forecast.

FAST FACTS ON BERYL
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…23.9N 93.0W
ABOUT 385 MI…615 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…997 MB…29.44 INCHES

WARNING SUMMARY
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* The Texas coast from Baffin Bay northward to Sargent

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* The Texas coast south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio
Grande River
* The Texas coast north of Sargent to San Luis Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The Texas coast south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio
Grande River
* The Texas coast north of Sargent to High Island
* The northeastern coast of mainland Mexico from Barra el
Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grande River

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* North Entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore to San Luis
Pass, including Corpus Christi Bay and Matagorda Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* The Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande River northward
to North Entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore
* San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass, including Galveston Bay

HURRICANE HUNTERS
NOAA Hurricane Hunters are enroute to Beryl from their base in Lakeland FL. They will be on station by 7 p.m. CDT doing low level reconnaissance and center penetrations and tail Doppler radar data. An Air Force plane will depart this evening for fixes after midnight.

MODELS
Fortunately, the HWRF and the HMON don’t predict rapid intensification, both bringing the storm in at about 970-975 mb. The HWRF is stronger with winds around 95 mph. The HMON has winds around 75 mph.

The new models, the HAFS-A and HAFS-B are consistent on track with the A coming in around 975 mb and 75 mph. The B model is about same for pressure, but stronger with winds above 90 mph.

WIND
Not much has changed in the wind forecast

SURGE
Peak surge has been edged up to 4-6 feet for areas from Mesquito Bay to Sargent, including the large area around Matagorda Bay. Here is a complete rundown of the surge forecast. The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Mesquite Bay, TX to Sargent, TX…4-6 ft
Matagorda Bay…4-6 ft
Sargent, TX to San Luis Pass, TX…3-5 ft
N Entrance Padre Island NS, TX to Mesquite Bay, TX…3-5 ft
Corpus Christi Bay…3-5 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to N Entrance Padre Island NS, TX…2-4
ft
San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX…2-4 ft
Galveston Bay…2-4 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Cameron, LA…1-3 ft

RAIN
The heaviest rain will be between Victoria and Houston and College Station. Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with localized amounts
of 15 inches is expected across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas beginning late Sunday through midweek. This rainfall
will likely produce areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally considerable. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is also possible.

Bill Murray

2024-07-06 22:13:17

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