HRD participates in American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting – Hurricane Research Division

The world’s largest yearly gathering for the weather, water, and climate community took place earlier this month in Denver, Colorado. Scientists from NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory participated in the 103rd annual American Meteorological Society meeting from January 8 – 12 through formal presentations, posters, panel discussions, and more. 

The theme of this year’s AMS meeting was “Data: Driving Science, Informing Decisions, Enriching Humanity.” Staff from AOML’s Hurricane Research and Physical Oceanography Divisions joined scientists, educators, students, and other professionals from around the world in exploring the data revolution for decision-making today and in the future.

A number of presentations featured AOML’s research on uncrewed ocean-atmosphere observations, including Saildrones, underwater gliders, and small uncrewed aerial systems. 

Uncrewed Ocean-Atmosphere Observations during the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season

During the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, uncrewed systems were used in an innovative and coordinated effort to measure the entire air-sea transition zone (upper ocean, air-sea interface, atmospheric boundary layer) inside and outside of tropical cyclones.

Saildrone Observations of Turbulence Structure in the Hurricane Surface Layer

The turbulence structure in both the eyewall and outer-core regions of Hurricane Sam (2021) were examined after unprecedented high-frequency wind data were collected by a Saildrone in the surface layer of the Category 4 storm.

The development and evolution of NOAA’s next-generation Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System (HAFS) was also discussed in several presentations. 

The Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System: From Plan to Reality!

The Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System (HAFS) is NOAA’s next-generation, ocean-atmosphere-coupled multi-scale numerical model and data assimilation system. HAFS is expected to provide reliable and skillful guidance of tropical cyclone track and intensity (including Rapid Intensification), storm size, genesis, storm surge, rainfall, and tornadoes associated with tropical cyclones.

Developing the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System: Future Priorities

Development priorities in the next 2 – 5 years for the Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System (HAFS) include: moving nests, multi-scale data assimilation, physics parameterizations for tropical cyclones, ocean-wave-atmosphere coupling, and research and forecasting products. 

Improvements in the Assimilation of Tropical Cyclone Inner-core Observations in NOAA’s Next-Generation Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS)

In order to investigate HAFS data assimilation performance, an observation-space diagnostic capability was developed in terms of root-mean-square innovations, mean innovations, and ensemble spread. These observation-space diagnostics were then applied in a set of experiments to test the current configuration of HAFS and to improve data assimilation of tropical cyclone inner-core observations.

The full list of HRD presentations:

Aberson, S. D., N. Dorst and R. Molleda.  Hurricane Andrew, Then and Now.

Aberson, S. D., B. S. Rojas, A. Aksoy, and K. J. Sellwood.  Shear profiles and the inner-core structures of tropical cyclones.

Ahern, K., W. Ramstrom and X. Zhang.   Case Studies of Hurricane Landfalls in the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System Moving-nest Configuration.

Alaka, G. J. Jr,  M. C. Ko, J. Shin, A. Hazelton, L. J. Gramer, W. Ramstrom, K. K. Ahern, S. Gopalakrishnan, X. Zhang, B. Liu, Z. Zhang, A. Mehra, and F. D. Marks Jr.  Developing a Multi-Storm Configuration of the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System.

Annane, B., S. M. Leidner, B. McNoldy, R. M. Atlas, and S. Majumdar. Impacts of CyGNSS v3.1 L2 Winds on Analyses and Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones in Regional OSEs.

Black, P. G., T. Hutchinson, J. Dean, K. Marshland, S. Brennan, and J. P. Dunion.  Use of Global Sounding Balloons (GSBs) to Augment Aircraft Inner Core Dropsondes for Improved Tropical Cyclone 3-D Environmental Mapping and Intensity Prediction.

Blackwell, W. J., N. Zorn, R. V. Leslie, C. Velden, T. J. Greenwald, D. C. Herndon, R. Bennartz, M. DeMaria, G. Chirokova, J. P. Dunion, F. D. Marks Jr.,  R. F. Rogers, K. E. Ryan, B. Annane, G. R. Alvey III, and B. A. Dahl.  TROPICS Pathfinder On-orbit Results and Status of the NASA TROPICS Constellation Mission.

Brammer, A., D. Grogan, A. B. Schumacher, and J. P. Dunion.  Evaluation of a new Hybrid Global Ensemble Statistical Genesis Index for Tropical Cyclones. 

Casey, S. P. F.,  L. Cucurull, M. J. Mueller, A. Vidal, and P. Paz. Relative Value of Sounding Quality and Quantity for Global Numerical Weather Prediction.

Chen, X., G. H. Bryan, A. Hazelton, F. D. Marks Jr., P. Fitzpatrick, G. J. Alaka Jr., C. Zhang, B. Liu, W. Wang, and Z. Zhang. An Improved PBL Scheme in Hurricane Conditions using Large-Eddy Simulations and Its Impact on Hurricane Forecasts from Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System.

Chirokova, G., G. R. Foltz, J. Kaplan, D. Molenar, I. Ebert-Uphoff, M. DeMaria, A. Brammer, S. N. Stevenson, W. Hogsett, and J. Darlow. Improving NHC’s Operational Intensity Guidance Suite and Situational Awareness with Better Metrics of Ocean-TC interaction.

Cucurull, L., Ongoing Efforts under the Quantitative Observing System Assessment Program (QOSAP).

Cucurull, L., Recent Impact of COSMIC-2 on Global Numerical Weather Prediction at NOAA.

Dahl, B. A., G. R. Alvey III, J. P. Dunion, J. Zawislak, R. F. Rogers, and W. J. Blackwell.   Assimilation of TROPICS Pathfinder Radiance Observations from Ida (2021) in HAFS.

DesRosiers, A. J., M. M. Bell, P. J. Klotzbach, M. S. Fischer, and P. Reasor.   Observed Relationships between Tropical Cyclone Vortex Height, Intensity, and Intensification Rate.

Foltz, G, C. Zhang, A. M. Chiodi, C. Edwards, C. Meinig, D. Zhang, E. Cockelet, E. F. Burger, F. Bringas, G. Goni, H. Hristova, H.-S. Kim, J. Trinanes, J. Morell, J. A. Zhang, K. E. Bailey, K. O’Brien, N.-H. Chi, N. Lawrence-Slavas, S. Mori, C. Bashore, J. J. Cione, and L. B. Looney, Uncrewed Ocean-Atmosphere Observations during the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Gopalakrishnan, S..,  A. Mehra, A. J. Poyer, V. S. Tallapragada, and F. D. Marks Jr.  The Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System: From Plan to Reality!

Gramer, L. J. J., M. Aristizabal, H. S. Kim, and J. D. Steffen. Modeling Ocean Mechanisms That Improve Hurricane Forecasts.

Grell, E., K. M. Newman, A. Hazelton, W. Li, M. Zhang, and B. Nelson. Toward Unified Physics in the Simulation of Tropical Cyclones Using the UFS.

Hazelton, A. T., G. J. Alaka Jr., L. J. Gramer, W. Ramstrom, X. Chen, M. C. Ko, S. D. Ditchek, K. K. Ahern, G. R. Alvey III, S. Gopalakrishnan, X. Zhang, F. D. Marks Jr., B. Liu, Z. Zhang, W. Wang, J. Shin, A. Mehra, and V. S. Tallapragada.  Real-Time and Retrospective Evaluation of the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS-S Version).

Hogsett, W., S. N. Stevenson, S. M. Camposano, J. A. Sippel, and A. Brammer.  Accelerating Operational Science and Technology Innovations in the Hurricane and Ocean Testbed (HOT).

Johnston, B., R., and L. Cucurull.  Impacts of Assimilating COSMIC-2 GNSS-RO Bending Angle Observations on HWRF Tropical Cyclone Forecasts from the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Ko, M.-C., J. P. Dunion and G. J. Alaka Jr.  The Development of a Tropical Cyclogenesis Index with a Consensus Machine Learning Model using the HAFS Dataset.

Lavin, P. D., D. A. Byrne, D. S. Trossman, and L. J. Gramer.  Case Studies Demonstrating the Potential Benefits of the NOAA Next-Generation Enterprise Ocean Heat Content Algorithm for Tropical Cyclone Intensification Forecasting in the Gulf of Mexico.

Libardini, A., S. J. Fletcher, L. Cucurull, and M. Zupanski.  Evaluating the Impact of AEOLUS Winds and Mesoscale Atmospheric Motion Vectors on Tropical Cyclone Forecasts.

Marks, F. D. Future direction for hurricane research.

Mehra, A., V. S. Tallapragada, J. Meixner, L. Stefanova, C. Stan, Z. Zhang, B. Liu, and X. Zhang.   Development of UFS-based Coupled Global and Regional Operational Forecast Systems.

Mueller, M. J., T. Hutchinson, J. Creus-Costa, L. Cucurull, and V. S. Tallapragada.  Assimilation of WindBorne Systems Long-Duration Smart Weather Balloon Observations in NCEP’s Global Data Assimilation System.

Murray, E., L. Bucci, J. P. Dunion, Z. Wang, J. Zawislak, and J. A. Zhang.  The Convective Nature of Clouds in the Eyes of Tropical Cyclones Observed by Airborne Compact Raman Lidar.

Nelson, K. J., F. Xie, J. Zawislak, and C. O. Ao.  Thermodynamic Structure of the Tropical Cyclone Middle Troposphere as seen by GNSS Radio Occultation Observations.

Nowottnick, E. P., J. Zawislak, A. R. Nehri, H. Maring, A. J. Piña, W. McCarty, J. S. Reid, S. H. Chen, A. K. Rowe, N. Sakaeda, C. E. Robinson, S. S. Chen, E. J. Zipser, Z. Pu, R. A. Ferrare, S. Hristova-Veleva, L. Ziemba, K. L. Thornhill, K. Bedka, M. Kavaya, S. Tanelli, S. T. Brown, P. G. Veals, B. Lambrigsten, B. D. Rodenkirch, and S. N. Wu.  The NASA Convective Processes Experiment – Cabo Verde (CPEX-CV): Mission Overview and Saharan Dust Measurements Obtained in the East Atlantic in September 2022.

Poyer, A. J.,  Y. Jung, F. D. Marks Jr.,  S. Gopalakrishnan, V. S. Tallapragada, A. Mehra, and M. J. Brennan.  Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP): Transition to Operational Improvement of Tropical Cyclone Forecasting.

Ramstrom, W. D., X. Zhang, K. K. Ahern, G. J. Alaka Jr., and S. Gopalakrishnan.  Moving Nest Implementation for the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS).

Rogers, R. F., and M. S. Fischer.  Structural Characteristics Associated with the Alignment and Intensification of Weak Tropical Cyclones.

Rojas, B. S., S. D. Aberson and A. C. Didlake Jr.  A Structural Analysis of Hurricane Dorian (2019) During Rapid Intensification.

Tiwari, A., K. A. Cherkauer, W. W. Tung, F. D. Marks Jr., and D. Niyogi. Variability in Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Estimates from Gridded Data Products and Its Implication on Hydrological Analysis.

Wang, W.,  J. Shin, B. Thomas, L. Zhu, X. Li, B. Liu, Z. Zhang, A. Mehra, V. S. Tallapragada, A. Hazelton, and X. Chen.   An Overview of HAFS Physics Parameterizations and Their Performance.

Wang, Z., J. A. Zhang, J. P. Dunion, L. Bucci, J. Zawislak, and E. Murray.  Profiling Tropical Cyclone Atmospheric Boundary Layer Structure with an Airborne Raman Lidar.

Wu, D., A. Aksoy, J. A. Sippel, B. A. Dahl, K. J. Sellwood, B. Liu, and Y. Weng.  Improvements in the Assimilation of Tropical Cyclone Inner-core Observations in NOAA’s Next-Generation Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS).

Xu, W., X. Zhang, S. D. Ditchek, and K. L. Corbosiero.  Diurnal Pulsing in Tropical Cyclone Convection and Its Relationship to TC Intensification.

Zawislak, J.,  E. P. Nowottnick, A. R. Nehrir, A. J. Piña, W. McCarty, H. Maring, S. H. Chen, S. S. Chen, B. Lambrigtsen, Z. Pu, A. K. Rowe, J. S. Reid, N. Sakaeda, S. Hristova-Veleva, P. G. Veals, E. J. Zipser, K. Bedka, S. Brown, R. A. Ferrare, M. Kavaya, C. E. Robinson, R. Rodriguez Monje, S. Tanelli, K. L. Thornhill, and L. Ziemba.  Overview of Measurements Collected during NASA’s Convective Processes Experiment – Cabo Verde (CPEX-CV) in the East Atlantic in September 2022.

Zhang, D., G. R. Foltz, C. Zhang, C. W. Fairall, H. S. Kim, J. A. Zhang, A. Mehra, A. M. Chiodi, M. F. Cronin, E. Thompson, and J. Thomson. Air-Sea Surface Fluxes in Tropical Cyclones Measured By Uncrewed Surface Vehicle Saildrones.

Zhang, J. A., G. Foltz, D. Zhang, C. Zhang, A. M. Chiodi, J. J. Cione, F. D. Marks Jr., G. Goni, and H. S. Kim.  Saildrone Observations of Turbulence Structure in the Hurricane Surface.

Zhang, X., Z. Zhang, A. Mehra, V. S. Tallapragada, S. Gopalakrishnan, and F. D. Marks Jr.  Developing the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System: Future Priorities.

Zhang, Z., X. Zhang, B. Liu, A. Mehra, V. S. Tallapragada, S. Gopalakrishnan, and F. D. Marks Jr..  Advancing NOAA’s Hurricane Modeling Systems: Operational Implementation of UFS-Based HAFS for 2023 and Beyond.