July 21, 2024

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Weather News & Forecast

Highs Stay In The 90s; A Few Scattered Showers/Storms Around

3 min read

HOT AS A FIRECRACKER: We have some very routine summer weather for Alabama through the weekend. Partly sunny, hot, humid days with scattered showers and storms around, mostly during the afternoon and evening hours (1:00 until 11:00 p.m.). The chance of any one spot seeing rain today is 25-30 percent, 55-65 percent tomorrow, and around 30 percent Saturday and Sunday. The showers that form will be totally random; some neighbors could see a good downpour, while others don’t see a drop. The “afternoon thunderstorm lottery” as we often call it.

The weather just won’t change much next week. Hot, humid days with a few scattered showers and storms around on a daily basis; highs will be in the 90-94 degree range with lows in the 70s. This is the time of the year when Alabama’s weather doesn’t change much unless a tropical system is involved. See the video briefing for maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICS: Hurricane Beryl continues to weaken; sustained winds are down to 120 mph. It is about 440 miles southeast of Tulum, Mexico… moving to the west/northwest at 20 mph.

Water vapor images show an upper-level trough moving west-southwestward over the southern Gulf of Mexico, helping to impart moderate-to-strong shear over Beryl. While the hurricane has been an over-performer so far, this magnitude of shear should cause notable weakening over the next day or so, but Beryl is expected to still be a hurricane as it moves into the Yucatan Peninsula late tonight.

After emerging into the Gulf of Mexico, Beryl will likely have a couple of days to re-strengthen over warm waters with light or moderate shear. Almost
all of the model guidance show the system near hurricane strength as Beryl approaches the western Gulf Coast, and so does the official forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is basically the same as the previous one, but should be considered of low confidence due to the inherent uncertainties of intensity forecasts in moderate shear.

Final landfall is forecast just south of Brownsville, Texas Sunday night as a category one hurricane. The only impact for the Central Gulf Coast (Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach) is a high rip current danger tomorrow through Sunday.

The tropical wave trailing Beryl in the Caribbean (Invest 96L), remains disorganized, and NHC gives it only a 20 percent chance of development over the next seven days due to dry air, shear, and upwelling from Beryl.

The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.

ON THIS DATE IN 1911: Record temperatures are set in the northeastern United States as a deadly heat wave hits the area that would go on to kill 380 people. In Nashua, New Hampshire, the mercury peaked at 106 degrees. Other high-temperature records were set all over New England during an 11-day period.

We are on a holiday schedule, so just one video briefing today… but I will forecast fresh forecast notes here this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

James Spann

2024-07-04 10:46:10

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