Good Morning Sunday: Rain and Storms Moving into Alabama and Watching Ian2 min read
All eyes are on the northwestern Caribbean and Tropical Storm Ian, which is still not very organized this morning but is expected to do so in a big way over the next 36-48 hours.
The overnight runs of the GFS still are still the western outlier, moving the system to near the northern Gulf Coast late Thursday night or early Friday morning as a weakening hurricane.
Most of the models are east of that, with a landfall in the Florida Big Bend area, also as a weakening hurricane. The weakening part makes sense given that there will be extreme amounts of wind shear and dry air over the northern Gulf, thanks to a frontal system that is settling south this morning through western Tennessee.
That front is setting off showers and storms this morning across Mississippi that will be sagging southeast into Alabama through the morning hours. Rain already covers parts of Lamar, Pickens, Fayette, Tuscaloosa, and Walker counties.
In Northeast Alabama, rain covers parts of Calhoun and Cherokee Counties southeast of I-59 and in between Gadsden and Anniston.
The SPC does have a small sliver of Northeast Alabama in a Marginal Risk Area for today and tonight, with the threat being damaging winds.
Today will be warm, with highs mostly in the lower and middle 80s. A bit of a cooldown is in order behind the front, and the weather will be beautiful Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday thanks to the front. The forecast for Thursday and Friday will be highly dependent on the track of Ian. If the GFS is right, rain and storms will spread into South Alabama Thursday and spread northward with rain likely over a wide area Thursday night and Friday.
If the hurricane moves off more to the northeast, it will be a glancing blow for Alabama with showers and storms staying well east of us in Georgia and the Florida Peninsula.
I will have the video by 6:30 a.m. and another update on Ian at 7. We will post frequent updates today and tonight as we try to discern the future track and intensity of Ian.
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