April 11, 2021

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Freezing Rain Friday Possible Pa North of Route 76, NW New Jersey Hudson Valley Connecticut North of Route 84

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Freezing Rain Friday Possible Pa North of Route 76,

NW New Jersey Hudson Valley Connecticut North of Route 84

 

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Freezing Rain Friday Possible Pa North of Route 76,

NW New Jersey Hudson Valley Connecticut North of Route 84

It does seem as if we are setting up for some freezing rain issues on Friday New Years Day. More on this in a moment. First off we have seen a rather busy wind overnight bringing in colder air into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic for today. Some clouds are showing up on the satellite images and loops today and we are also seeing some snow showers on the radars.

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Those snow showers should continue today well inland and north and the occasional snow shower could sneak across the coastal plain. Otherwise it is a mix of sun and clouds with a gusty wind for awhile longer. Highs today will be mostly in the 30s. This sets us up for a cold night tonight with clear skies and less wind. lows by morning will be in the teens to lower 20s.

Wednesday looks like a nice sunny day with highs in the 30s to around 40. Then we begin the next round of changes starting Thursday New Year’s Eve with a cold front approaching and moving through the area. The front will probably produce a little rain and snow upstate. By the time it reaches the coast there won’t be much with it other than clouds and perhaps an area of showers for Thursday morning.

The front passing through brings yet another high building into the Northeast for Thursday into Friday morning while low pressure comes out of Texas and turns northward up the Mississippi Valley. Thursday’s cold front stalls across the Mid Atlantic. Much of the day Thursday will be one of clouds and perhaps maybe some clearing skies working its way southward down the Hudson Valley to Central New Jersey. I expect temperatures to settle in the 40s and then head down to the 20s inland Thursday night and middle 30s along the coast and in warmer urban areas for Friday morning. Other than what we get Thursday morning there will be no precipitation to worry about through early Friday morning.

Right now I would say the greatest risk for freezing rain and some ice accretion would be in Pennsylvania north of Route 76 and also north and northwest of Route 84. The freezing rain will probably extend into Northern New Jersey north of Route 78 and west of 287. In the Hudson Valley I’m not sure whether the southern extent of this will be at Route 287 or 30 miles north at Route 84. It will also extend into most of Connecticut except for perhaps south of Route 15. Odds favor Route 84 but we will wait another day or two to figure that part of the equation out. It eventually changes to rain from south to north The area of the Hudson Valley north of 84 to I-90 and perhaps a bit further north could be vulnerable to a significant icing event here with ice accretion of  .25 inch or higher at first glance. Again this will be something to look at closely between now and Thursday as far as fine tuning the forecast. For everywhere else it will be mostly rain on the order of an inch to an inch and a half developing from south to north Friday and lasting into Saturday morning as it ends from west to east.

Over the last few days various models have been showing another low coming out of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and moving up the coast to east of New Jersey, south of Long Island for Sunday night into Monday. This obviously would be an issue if it materializes. Only the European model is showing this idea on the overnight model cycle. For now we will leave any mention of precipitation out of the forecast and just go for a dry chilly first weekend of 2021.

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