With this particular set up it’s dangerous to speculate on specifics. What we know is something is going to bring weather to Florida either sooner or later, further South or further North. #Franklin wandering, crossover energy lifting N .. front up to the N & showoff ULL in GOM. I’m leaving these words up at the top of the page as words in this case matter more than any image that will be presented below. Truth is 2023 has been a strange hurricane season with an array of systems that everyone thought would get named and did not. Hilary stole the show in the EPAC, tho her progression across the country created more chaos in her wake and more questions down the tropical road. Someone stole the Bermuda High and the very hot waters of the MDR didn’t produce what was predicted and the Gulf of Mexico has a set up that looks more like early October in the tropics than the last week in September. August has been way too hot.
70% in the 7 day.
30% in the 2 day.
Today is August 25th, not June or October, and yet we have this strange set up. Temperatures in the Carolinas are in the high 90s, flirting with 100. A cold front is supposed to cool things off after this ridiculous Heat Wave and what will be by Labor Day is anyone’s guess.
The Bermuda High is MIA on many of the models making it almost impossible for good tropical wave, cruising over hot water to get to this part of the Atlantic. Who saw that coming? The GFS is crushing on an African Wave leaving the EURO, CMC and ICON to dream of storms forming in the Gulf of Mexico.
The formation Zone is above.
It’s very long as the timing is unsure.
Somewhere in there
…that’s the idea.
Will the idea be Idelia?
That’s the question.
Weak it’s an Invest or a TD.
Shear has been an issue all year.
Invests and named storms having problems..
…gaining traction let alone intensifying.
Franklin blobby again.
Literally nothing in the MDR spinning.
But the Yucatan to FL on watch.
Franklin wants to go to the NATL.
Hot spot in the tropics since January 16h.
Our pre-season spinner.
Upgraded on May 11th.
That should have been our first clue…
I’ll update later today.
Oh right you want models.
August 30th, Idalia makes landfall.
Follows Franklin out to sea.
Bermuda High on vacation.
Mike is the King of Model Grids …
Ending here with a bit of history.
In 1998 we had a similar set up.
A different hurricane season.
Beginnng of September
Earl, an ugly Hurricane.
A controversial hurricane in the GOM
Making landfall in Florida.
Danielle a beautiful spinner in the Atlantic.
Earl followed Danielle out to sea.
As if it had a crush on Danielle.
Different hurricane season.
Similar set up.
Beginning of September.
I thought it was worth throwing in the mix.
I’ll update at the top with the 8 AM.
We are watching the Yucatan.
Jury out on the high numbers predicted for 2023
Time will tell.
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