April 20, 2021

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FLORIDA / BAHAMAS LOW PRESSURE UPDATE…ISSUED MAR. 21, 2021…5:40 EDT

4 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

The area of low pressure (gale center) located almost on the Florida east coast, and another broad area near the Bahamas, have not changed much in satellite appearance and structure, over the past 24 hours.  Based on analysis of the 12Z NHC Tropical Weather discussion section, 12Z surface analysis, both areas are associated with stationary fronts.  Both the ECMWF and GFS models MSLP Anomalies maps pretty much agree on the location of the low centers.  Being that these low pressure areas are attached to fronts, this indicates there has been no transition, or beginning of transition to acquiring sub-tropical characteristics.  The ECMWF and GFS have backed off on further development on the latest runs, and indicate the low close to FL. to pretty much come ashore, with both lows merging, then elongating before moving out.  This is noted in the surface wind animated GIF’S.
12Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS (LINKED FOR ZOOM FEATURE)

ECMWF AND GFS INITIAL MSLP ANOMALIES


ECMWF AND GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES ANIMATED GIF


The following are recent satellite loops of the area.
RAMSDIS (CLICK FOR LOOP)

WEATHERNERDS GOES SATELLITE GIF

Based on analysis of everything this afternoon, it now appears this area may not transition to sub-tropical, and I am anticipating the low remains baroclinic / clod core in nature.  I will continue to monitor this area for any significant changes over the next 72 hours.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed weekend!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

palmharborforecastcenter

2021-03-21 21:38:50

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