May 28, 2023

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Flood Watch Issued; Plus, A New Tornado Watch May Be Needed After 12 pm

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NWS Birmingham continues a TORNADO WATCH until 12 pm for the following counties in Central Alabama: Autauga, Chambers, Chilton, Coosa, Dallas, Elmore, Lee, Lowndes, Macon, Marengo, Montgomery, Perry, Tallapoosa. The threat has ended for Barbour, Bullock, Pike, and Russell counties, and have been cancelled from the watch.

NWS Birmingham has issued an AREAL FLOOD WATCH effective immediately for the following counties in Central Alabama: Autauga, Bibb, Calhoun, Chambers, Chilton, Clay, Cleburne, Coosa, Dallas, Elmore, Greene, Hale, Jefferson, Lee, Lowndes, Macon, Marengo, Montgomery, Perry, Pickens, Randolph, Shelby, St. Clair, Sumter, Talladega, Tallapoosa, Tuscaloosa. The watch goes until 7 am Monday.

SUMMARY… A gradual intensification trend has been noted in ongoing thunderstorms across southwest Alabama. This trend will likely continue as daytime heating supporting increasing buoyancy. A downstream watch may be needed if these trends continue over the next hour.

DISCUSSION… Regional radars across MS/AL have shown steady intensification and organization of supercells across southwest to central AL over the past hour. These trends are supported by cooling cloud tops in IR imagery as well as increasing vertically integrated ice. With no appreciable change in the overall kinematic environment noted, this trend is likely attributable to increasing buoyancy driven by diurnal heating as temperatures warm into the low to mid 80s across southern AL in the warm sector. With further diurnal warming expected through partly cloudy skies, buoyancy should improve further and support further intensification through the mid afternoon hours. Consequently, the threat for hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado will likely persist. These cells will continue to be monitored and a watch may be needed to address this concern through the afternoon.

Scott Martin

2023-03-26 16:26:45

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