March 4, 2021

Weather News – Road Conditions – weather forecast

First Significant Change Showing Up in the Ensemble Mean

2 min read


The latest European model ensemble mean has lessoned snow amounts in our area a bit on the latest run, this is because more of the various ensemble members have the storm completely missing us to the south and east, as the British model is showing on the latest run of that model. This is absolutely still a possibility, as when the strong disturbance approaches from the west, it will re-develop along or off the coast. It is all about where this storm re-develops. It is still too early to make any major inference, based on one model run. It is possible the model is on to something and it will miss to the south, or it may just be mishandling something in the atmosphere on this run.  Keep in mind that most of the 50 individual ensemble members still bring us snow, it is just that a few more miss us on this run than the prior run. Like I said before, you are looking for changes in the model runs, or trends. The trend is your friend as they in forecasting. Only time will tell.  I will post another update this evening after the next run comes out.  Let’s see what that run has to say…

Latest run…

Prior run…

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