June 30, 2022

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FIRST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE DETECTED (?)…ISSUED APR. 24, 2022…8:40 P. M. EDT

4 min read

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good evening everyone!

It has been pointed out by the Barbados Meteorological Services that the first Tropical Wave of the season has emerged off Africa.  So, I figured I would do some quick analysis this evening.  Based on my analysis, it was found through the ASCAT latest pass, that indeed there appears to be an ill defined surface signature of a Tropical wave.  The surface signature of a Tropical Wave represents an inverted trof, or a “V” shape, indicating convergence on the east side, and divergence on the west side.  Based on analysis of the recent ASCAT pass, I drew in the wind flow, from east to west.  Although the signature is weak and ill defined, the wind flow does have the inverted “V” or trof pattern.
ASCAT WMBds125

Satellite imagery shows some decent convection, and minimal lightning associated with the area.  In fact, did someone wake up Africa?
GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP EASTERN ATLANTIC
38930163
AFRICAN SATELLITE LOOP
AFRICA.ANIM

Analysis of wind shear, upper divergence and lower convergence from CIMSS, indicates wind shear is only 5-10 kts over the area, with low to moderate divergence aloft.  The feature however is lacking any surface convergence.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR
wm7shr
UPPER DIVERGENCE
wm7dvg

The wave appears to be moving toward the west, and I expect this motion to continue for the next few days.  Based on analysis of the current wind shear forecast from the ECMWF Global model, wind shear is expect to increase out of the NW in about 48 hours.  Based on this alone, I do not expect anything to become of this area.  Also, it is embedded within the ITCZ/Monsoon Trof, and is located south of 5 deg. north latitude.  Based on its location, the Coriolis Effect is not strong enough to induce very much spin.  As a rule of thumb, a tropical wave should be located at 5 deg. latitude or more for the Coriolis Effect to have a decent influence.
ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-exatl-shear_850v200-1017600

But for giggles and grins, I’ll be looking at it over the next few days.

You may direct any questions this season by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-04-25 00:37:30

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