June 13, 2024

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FINAL 2023 HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK / POSSIBLE EARLY DEVELOPMENT? FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY, 03, 2023…8:00 P.M. EDT

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Disclaimer:  This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good evening!

The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season kicks off on June 01, 2023, with Tropical Weather Outlooks beginning on May 15, 2023 from the NHC.  I will be shying away from severe weather updates (unless the situation appears that it may be bad…generally ENHANCED risk or worse), as I will be delving over my various hurricane sites.

I wanted to update my 2023 Hurricane Season Outlook.  I’ve decided to make this the FINAL forecast for the season.  This is going to be brief, as I have gone over all the various things that go into the forecast over the past 2 outlooks.  I have increased the total storm count slightly, based on the anomalies over the Atlantic basin, and forecast anomalies.  Based on recent analysis of all the parameters and recent update of some data, I believe we should experience a somewhat below average season.  Activity this season is going to depend pretty much on 3 items:  The strength of the forecast El Nino and the onset, if the forecast for a positive IOD pans out and its strength, and the SST anomalies over the Atlantic basin and whether or not they remain warmer than average.  The ideal setup would be colder anomalies to the north, and warmer anomalies over the MDR and to around 30N. 

The following is my outlook forecast for the upcoming 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season.  These totals are based on changes to some of the updated climate model data.
STORM W PRE-SEASON FORECAST

TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 11– 14
TOTAL HURRICANES :        5 – 6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

Something I wanted to touch on this evening, though the probability, based on analysis, is very low at the moment.  There COULD be a slight possibility of early tropical development.  Based on my analysis of various forecast items, and tips from my “colleague” Meteorologist Joe Bastardi, this slim possibility may exist.  Analysis yesterday evening of the MJO forecast, indicates the MJO to swing through phase 6 and into phase 7.  Around this time of year, phase 7 has a tendency to place a trof over the east, and this is when trof splits have a tendency to occur.  Unfortunately, during these trof splits, a piece usually breaks away, heads SW, and can wind up in the Gulf of Mexico.  The forecast for the MJO is for it to go to phase 8 based on the BOM (Australian Bureau Of Meteorology) which has been outperforming the other models, especially the ECMWF.  The ECMWF on the other hand, has been trending more toward the BOM solution over the past couple of days.  Phases 8, 1, and 2 are favorable for development over our basins.  The following are some of the MJO forecasts, and a map of where development can occur in phase 8 (red and orange on the map):
BOM  MJO FORECAST
mjo_rmm.daily.20230430
EMON
NCFS
GMON
ECMWF PHASE 7 500 MB ANOMALY PATTERN
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-4324800
The following map indicates tropical cyclone formation favorability (red and orange areas)

for phase 8 of the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation)
MJO PHASE 8
Same-as-Figure-2-MJO VITARTphase.8
Some of the global modeling even indicates a somewhat favorable CHI 200 anomaly pattern, with upward motion coming into play near to about 10 days after the MJO supposedly swings into phase 8.  While the GFS is the least favorable, animation of the map indicates a good portion of the brown color sinking motion) weakens considerably.
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2023050112_MEAN_360
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2023050100_CONTROL_840
ecmwf-ensemble-c00-exatl-chi200_anom-4368000
cmc-ensemble-all-avg-exatl-chi200_anom-4454400
gfs-deterministic-exatl-chi200_anom-4454400

MJO filtered VP200 anomalies for the current state, for the week 1 forecast, and for the week 2 forecast.
Cold colors are representative of a more favorable state over the Atlantic for tropical cyclogenesis (typically after the passage), and warm colors represent a less favorable state for tropical cyclogenesis.
A more favorable state for Tropical Cyclone activity is usually enhanced 5 – 10 days after the passing of the upward motion phase of the MJO.

Again, at the moment, this probability is low in confidence.  However, it is food for thought.  None of the models indicate anything tropical during the next 10 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

palmharborforecastcenter

2023-05-04 00:03:13

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