Disclaimer: This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Good day everyone!
Analysis of the global models and the NAM model are still forecasting moderate to heavy accumulations of rainfall during this week, and possibly into the beginning of the weekend over the south central portion of the U. S., spreading eastward. Upon analyzing the model solutions, I did not really notice any significant surface low that may be responsible for inducing this weather, but rather an elongated surface and mid level trough of lower pressure, with a negative tilt. Based on analysis of the upcoming 500 mb and 200 mb pattern, the setup will allow for development of frontal waves with the accompanying frontal boundary, along with shortwaves progressing along the 500 mb trough. The combination of these 2 features will allow for enough moisture to flow north from the GOMEX, along with warm air advection and enough lift to provide the ingredients for the heavy rainfall. This trough is going to be slow moving in nature, which will allow for these “frontal waves” and shortwave troughs to be numerous, and passing over the forecast area through at least mid week. Some rainfall totals could exceed “4 – 5” inches total by the end of the period in isolated locations. At the time of analysis, rain was already in progress over the Houston area. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a MARGINAL risk of severe thunderstorms in the day 2 and day 3 outlooks. Currently, the tornado risk associated with the outlooks is marginal, and tornado development would be isolated within the MARGINAL risk outlines. Forecast deep layer shear is slated to be 60 kts, and winds will be veering with height from SE at the surface to SW from 500 mb – 250 mb. With only moderate to weak instability forecast at the moment, any tornado activity should be weak. IF the areas become upgraded to the next level, I will have updates for severe weather over the next couple of days, with indices listed.
HOUSTON DOPPLER RADAR
ECMWF FORECAST MSLP ANOMALY ANIMATION.
WPC SURFACE MAP ANIMATION
ECMWF 500 MB HEIGHTS FORECAST ANIMATION
ECMWF AND GFS 5 DAY TOTAL PRECIPITATION
WPC 5 DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS
DAY 1 – 5 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALERT ISSUED
SPC DAY 2 AND DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area. Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
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Have a blessed day.
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
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