Evaluation of rainfall forecasts for tropical cyclones making landfall released online in Weather and Forecasting – Hurricane Research Division

Rainfall produced by landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) in HAFS and HWRF-B hurricane models is evaluated by verifying precipitation characteristics, including the shape and size of the rainfall area. Results show that both models produce reasonable rainfall forecasts, but both also tend to forecast storms that are too intense due to precipitation being too close to the TC center, too wrapped around the TC center, and too consolidated. This has implications for how these models can be used to predict rainfall and flooding hazards in landfalling TCs.

For more information, contact aoml.communications@noaa.gov. The paper can be found at https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-22-0223.1.