March 20, 2023

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Erroneous Forecasts of Carolina Snowfall are Extremely Common These Days : meteorology

2 min read

If you pay close attention to how the weather models have been working recently. One of the current erroneous trends is exacerbation of how well these artic outbreaks survive the warm gulf moisture that interacts in the south & south east when they collide. (This happens all over the world as well with the models). They go based off of data going back the past century, the past century had cooler than average temps in the Gulf and Gulf stream leading to these outbreaks surviving and pushing further south even into FL. But these days anywhere that interacts with the Gulf stream has seen substantially less snowfall & much higher costal temps.

You can see the battle take place in this Temperature gradients of 50 degrees within a span of 100 miles. It is common for this situation to occur with artic intrusions of air, but the gradients are becoming much more extreme on average. Tornado fuel. And since the cold air moves from west to east, it has even more time to interact with the above average SST in the gulf as it moves across the gulf coast and south east. Leading to by the time the air gets to the Carolinas it has been heated up a ton. The mountains block the cold air from directly going over NC completely, the major cold air mass and some moisture at the same time has to come into the Carolinas from the south as well to get snow, which is now less common.

You can see this being enhanced by above average SST anomaly, image here: But yeah, between 2010-2020 Raleigh, NC received the lowest amount of snowfall in recorded history. 2020+ seems to be the same. Pass the year of 2000, the gulf has been hotter than average 90% of the time as well. This is why we keep getting forecasted for like a foot of snow in west Carolinas on the GFS 120 hrs out for a artic breakout like this. Because back in the 80’s for example, we would be probably getting a lot of snow here with something like this, but not with the current and future SST setup.

I personally think, they need to program the weather models to code themselves. They need to train the weather models to look at themselves and say, hey this trends keeps happening here lets adjust how we predict this trend next time instead of taking raw data from the past and only using that as the source. But unfortunately, nobody cares that much about the weather. A multi-billion dollar AI venture like that will only be possible once AI is much cheaper.


2022-12-19 17:34:41

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