Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).
Once again, as credit to the SPC, I will be incorporating the SPC outlook text for those who wish to read the full aspects of the outlook.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued an ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE…
Severe storms are expected across the lower Mississippi through Tennessee Valley regions. All hazards are possible including very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. Potential for a strong tornado exists from eastern Arkansas into western Tennessee. Other severe storms are possible across a portion of the Midwest with isolated damaging wind and large hail the main threats.
Based on my analysis of the SPC outlook, and severe weather and tornado indices from the most current run of the NAM-WRF model, using F5 DATA software, a combination of very high CAPE, steep lapse rates, high dewpoint, and high lifted indices, very large hail, and tornadoes (some possibly strong), appear to be on tap for today. Graphics from the F5 DATA NAM-WRF tend to indicate stronger severe activity a little further to the SW at around 4:00 p.m. CDT, however this may be erroneous, as it does not currently match the SPC convective outlook risk areas. SPC indicates a possible development of an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) over TN., moving eastward later, and possible tornado spin-ups associated with a QLCS (Quasi Linear Convective System) over the ENHANCED risk area.
SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAP (LINKED FOR SPC OUTLOOK TEXT)
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
DAMAGING WIND OUTLOOK
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
SPC HOME PAGE LINK
Some of the indices analyzed were as follows:
SBCAPE: 2000-2500 j/kg
MLCAPE: 1000-1500 j/kg
L.I.: -6 to -8
SRH: 150-200 m2/m2
The following 2 links will provide some explanation of what these indices mean:
Here is the definition of the last index posted…VGP:
The VGP (Vorticity Generation Parameter) is meant to estimate the rate of tilting and stretching of horizontal vorticity by a thunderstorm updraft. Values greater than 0.2 m s-2 suggest an increasing possibility of tornadic storms.
Based on the latest run available (06Z) of the NAM-WRF model, the following F5 DATA maps indicate at this time, where the greatest probability of the strongest severe weather and tornado activity may occur. Once again, be aware these may change as the model updates again later this morning, along with any changes the SPC may initiate in the next morning update to the convective outlook.
F5 DATA NAM-WRF MODEL 7:00 P.M. CDT
F5 DATA NAM-WRF MODEL 10:00 P.M. CDT
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area. Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
Use the following link to see your area forecast. Once on the site, type in your zip code in the green box:
WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: email@example.com
Have a blessed weekend!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
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