April 21, 2024

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ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER RISK SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAR. 25, 2024…10:55 A.M. EDT

6 min read

Disclaimer:  This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

The outlined maps you were used to seeing from my F5 DATA software, are no longer around and operational.  This means I have lost quite a bit of data to analyze but I will try to make the severe weather forecasts as accurate and understandable as possible.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/images/SPC_outlook_final_updated.png
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK CONVERSION TABLE FOR DAY 1 OUTLOOKS
image002day1.conv

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued an ENHANCED risk of severe thunderstorms: IN PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS TO EASTERN MISSISSIPPI…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm gusts are possible today through tonight from east Texas to Alabama.

SPC DAY 1 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAPS (first image linked to current SPC outlook)
day1otlk_1300
TORNADO PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1300_torn
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. 
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
HAIL PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1300_hail
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1300_wind
Based on my analysis of the current outlook, CIPS, NAM 3km, HRRR and SPC SREF forecast models, information derived from forecast indices indicate all severe threats are probable.  Based on analyzed SRH values, deep layer and effective layer shear, and EHI, some tornadoes within the ENHANCED area could reach strong (EF2+ intensity), with possible isolated strong in the SLIGHT risk area, close to the ENHANCED outline.  Tornadoes and damaging winds appear to be the greatest risk today through tonight.  Based on the lack of strong CAPE values, along with marginal to moderate instability based on the LI and mid level lapse rate, I am not expecting any significant hail at the moment.  The forecast setup should produce a QLCS (Quasi Linear Convective System) environment with embedded supercells and tornadoes.  Initiation should begin very early this afternoon, lasting through the evening hours. As the system continues eastward, severe weather may still be ongoing over a portion of AL. in the early morning hours.

Based on analysis of the mentioned models, forecast indices pertain to the ENHANCED SLIGHT risk outlines, with strongest values occurring over the ENHANCED risk area .  The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning.  Bear in mind, indices recorded below are at the time of peak intensity.  Indices meanings can be accessed further on in the synopsis:
SBCAPE: 500 – 1000 j/kg-1
MLCAPE: 500 –1250 j/kg-1
MUCAPE: 750 – 1250 j/kg-1
SRH 0 -1 km: 300 – 400 m2/s2
SRH 0 -3 km: 500 – 700 m2/s2
SRH EFFECTIVE: 250 – 500 m2/s2

L. I.: -1 to -6
STP: 1 – 4
SCP: 1 – 8
0 -6 km SHEAR: 60 – 70 kts
EFF. SHEAR: 50 – 60 kts
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 6.0 – 7.5C
DEWPOINT: 61F – 69F
EHI: 1.9 – 4.7
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 47 – 54C
K INDEX: 29 – 32C

STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.

The following are the SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast maps from the NAM and HRRR model.  Generally, the higher the values and brighter the color, indicates a greater probability of strong thunderstorm and tornadic activity over an area:

NAM 3KM SCP FORECAST (1:00 p.m. 25 MAR.  – 4:00 a.m. CDT 26 MAR.)
nam-nest-louisiana-supercell_comp-1711346400-1711389600-1711443600-80
NAM 3KM STP FORECAST (1:00 p.m. 25 MAR.  – 4:00 a.m. CDT 26 MAR.)
nam-nest-alms-sig_tor-1711346400-1711389600-1711422000-80
HRRR SCP FORECAST (1:00 p.m. 25 MAR.  – 4:00 a.m. CDT 26 MAR.)
hrrr-louisiana-supercell_comp-1711368000-1711389600-1711443600-80
HRRR STP FORECAST (1:00 p.m. 25 MAR.  – 4:00 a.m. CDT 26 MAR.)
hrrr-alms-sig_tor-1711368000-1711389600-1711443600-80
SPC SREF PROBABILITY OF FORECAST STP >1 (21Z)
SREF_prob_sigtor_1__f018
00Z
SREF_prob_sigtor_1__f021
03Z
SREF_prob_sigtor_1__f024
06Z
SREF_prob_sigtor_1__f027
Please use the following maps, which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches.  You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics.  I have provided the SPC homepage link below, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
Valid MD Image
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
Valid WW Image
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER
The following sites will explain most of the severe weather and tornado values listed above, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices

THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
canvas.radr_.us_
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
radar_comp_Eng
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.

palmharborforecastcenter

2024-03-25 14:42:24

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