February 27, 2024

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Weather News & Forecast

ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK…ISSUED JAN. 12, 2024…10:30 A.M. EST

6 min read

Disclaimer:  This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

The outlined maps you were used to seeing from my F5 DATA software, are no longer around and operational.  This means I have lost quite a bit of data to analyze but I will try to make the severe weather forecasts as accurate and understandable as possible.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/images/SPC_outlook_final_updated.png
Quite a difference 24 hours can make in a forecast.  The following was the DAY 2 outlook for severe weather for today.  The DAY 1 outlook tells a totally different story:
DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM JAN. 11, 2024:
day2otlk_0700
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued an ENHANCED
risk of severe thunderstorms in the current day 1 outlook: OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorm winds and a few tornadoes are possible across a large part of the Southeast through early this evening. The most intense gusts (potentially above 70 mph) are possible through midday over parts of the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions.

SPC DAY 1 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAPS (first image linked to current SPC outlook)
day1otlk_1300
TORNADO PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1300_torn
HAIL PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1300_hail
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1300_wind
Screenshot 2024-01-12 at 09-36-28 SPC Day 1 Outlook
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Based on my analysis of the current outlook, CIPS forecast model, and NAM model, information derived from forecast indices indicate the most likely threat could be damaging wind gusts. Tornadoes and marginally severe hail could occur over the ENHANCED risk area through late morning. Tornadoes cannot not be excluded from the SLIGHT risk area, as well as hail and damaging winds.  However, probably not as numerous or severe as the ENHANCED risk area, and should be limited to the southern half of the SLIGHT risk outline, however isolated tornado activity is possible over the entire area.  This is based on analysis of strong deep layer shear, moderate effective shear and sharply veering winds, which will produce directional and speed shear.  These factors produce rotating storms.  Based on my analysis of the various models, SBCAPE and MLCAPE values were approximately 500 – 1500 j/kg with lifted indices of around -3 to -5.  Storms were ongoing at the time of my analysis, over Mississippi, and Tornado Watches had been issued. Indices were a little stronger over the area as noted by the CAPE values above.  Based on analysis, indices are forecast to weaken around noontime, onward.  Late this evening, as the line of storms approaches the Carolinas area, indices are forecast to strengthen somewhat, and should be limited just inland, and along the coastal area.The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning and pertain to the SLIGHT risk area, AFTER 12:00 p.m.:
SBCAPE: 250 – 750 j/kg-1
MLCAPE: 250 – 750 j/kg-1
MUCAPE: 500 – 1250 j/kg-1
SRH 0 -1 km: 300 – 800 m2/s2
SRH 0 -3 km: 300 – 800 m2/s2
SRH EFFECTIVE: 300 – 400 m2/s2

L. I.: -1
STP: 2 – 4
SCP: 2 – 8
EFF. SHEAR: 50 – 60 kts
0 -6 km SHEAR: 80 – 90 kts

MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 6.0 – 7.0C
DEWPOINT: 58F – 66F
EHI: 0.8 – 1.4
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 38C
K INDEX: 30 – 36C

STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.

The following are the SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast maps from the NAM model.  Generally, the higher the values and brighter the color, indicates a greater probability of strong thunderstorm and tornadic activity over an area:

NAM SCP FORECAST (12:00 p.m. 12 JAN. – 6:00 a.m. 13 JAN.)
nam-nest-se-supercell_comp-1705060800-1705082400-1705147200-80
NAM STP FORECAST (12:00 p.m. 12 JAN. – 6:00 a.m. 13 JAN.)
nam-nest-se-sig_tor-1705060800-1705082400-1705147200-80
Given the lower SBCAPE values forecast, there is another map I’m posting which is utilized during low buoyancy.  It’s referred to as SHERB (Severe Hazards in Environments with Reduced Buoyancy).  Based on this parameter, areas within forecast values of 1.0+ have a more likely probability of experiencing significant severe weather.
SHERB MAP
S (NOON)
SHERBnam212F012
3:00 P. M.

SHERBnam212F015
9:00 P. M.
SHERBnam212F021
Please use the following maps, which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches.  You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics.  I have provided the SPC homepage link above, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
Valid MD Image
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
Valid WW Image
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER
The following sites will explain most of the severe weather and tornado values listed above, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices

THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

I will try post information on the upcoming freezing temperatures forecast for mid month, in my next update.

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
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RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
radar_comp_Eng
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.

palmharborforecastcenter

2024-01-12 15:22:51

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