WARMING TREND: An upper ridge will keep Alabama dry through Wednesday, and the warming trend continues. We project a high around 80 degrees today, followed by mid 80s tomorrow and Wednesday. Clouds will increase Thursday, and our next chance of rain will come late Thursday afternoon, Thursday night, and into Friday morning as a cold front passes through the state. At this time we aren’t expecting any severe weather issues with the main dynamic forcing passing to the north, and limited instability.
Rain amounts for most of the state will be around one inch, and the rain will end from northwest to southeast during the day Friday. Friday will be cooler following the frontal passage with highs back in the low 70s.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: A very dry airmass will be in place, and the weather will be beautiful with sunny days and fair nights. The high Saturday will be in the mid 70s, followed by low 80s Sunday.
NEXT WEEK: Moisture will increase a bit by Monday with some risk of widely scattered showers, but the best chance of rain next week will come in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame with another cold front. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.
RAIN UPDATE: Here are rain totals since January 1, and the departure from average…
Mobile 23.40″ (+2.46″)
Muscle Shoals 22.83″ (+5.18″)
Huntsville 21.88″ (+3.37″)
Birmingham 21.12″ (+2.86″)
Tuscaloosa 19.82″ (+1.07″)
Montgomery 17.98″ (-1.37″)
Anniston 10.88″ (-7.11″)
ON THIS DATE TEN YEARS AGO: The second day of the 2011 Super Outbreak was underway. From April 25-28, 2011, over 175 tornadoes struck Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee, the most severely damaged states. Other destructive tornadoes occurred in Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, New York, and Virginia, with storms also affecting other states in the Southern and Eastern United States.
Alabama’s encounter with tornadoes during this event would be one day later, on April 27. I wrote this on the afternoon blog discussion April 26: “all of the synoptic elements for a major outbreak are in place. A deep (sub-1000 mb) low west of Memphis, steep lapse rates, strong veering of the wind with altitude in respect to projected storm motion, strong wind fields at the surface and aloft, dry air in the mid levels, and a very deep, long wave upper trough that is somewhat negatively tilted enhancing diffluence aloft over Alabama.”
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