DEVELOPING NOR’EASTER / INVEST 94L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 14, 2023…12:30 P.M. EDT

ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.  Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion.  When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented.  After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly.  This will have an effect on my actual forecast.  Unless otherwise noted, satellite imagery is provided through Weathernerds.org

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14– 16
TOTAL HURRICANES :        5 – 7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3 – 4

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS:
NAMED STORMS:          18
HURRICANES:                 6
MAJOR HURRICANES:  3

The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney

Greetings everyone! 
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands.  Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them.  Unless we have a system threatening any area, the forecast office will be closed on the weekends.

A Nor’easter is still forecast to begin developing later tonight off the Mid Atlantic coastline.  This should move in a general ENE direction for approximately 18 – 20 hours, before moving more to the NNE eventually impacting Newfoundland.  Small craft should remain off the water, and commercial shipping should take the necessary precautions due to gale force winds and significant wave heights.  For further information on this system, and any watches or warnings, please refer to the NWS hazards and warning map.  Once you click on the graphic, click on your area of interest for pertinent information.  This map is near the end of this synopsis.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALY ANIMATION

SURFACE WINDS FORECAST

WAVEWATCH 3 SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION

Elsewhere, INVEST 94L continues to become gradually better organized. Satellite loop imagery seems to indicate 94L is gradually getting its act together, and is getting “that look”, and has become more organized since yesterday.  At 12Z, the following information was available on INVEST 94L from the ATCF BTK product:
8:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 14
Location: 9.5°N 31.7°W
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb / 29.77 in
Max sustained: 35 mph
It was noted in the report that central pressure has slowly dropped in the past 24hours from 1010 to 1008 mb.
INVEST 94L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (IR, VIS, WATER VAPOR)



Analysis of current wind shear and upper level wind maps from CIMSS shows 94L may still be under some slight shear,however shear has decreased just west of the system, and a radial pattern appears to be developing. This may be an indication the radial pattern could eventually develop over the LLC.  Upper level winds indicate a decent outflow pattern may be developing, and this can be noted in the upper cloud motion in the satellite loop imagery.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS

Analysis of forecast wind shear, 200 mb pattern, moisture and CHI200 maps indicate conditions slowly improving to a more favorable environment over the next 48 hours, remaining through 96 – 120 hours with fluctuating conditions thereafter.  The CHI200 forecast for the most part indicates a divergent upper pattern to remain in place.  By 120 hours, the system will be entering the right rear entrance region of the 200 mb jet. The following is from the ECMWF (red circles indicate the forecast center of the storm):
PWAT

MID LEVEL HUMIDITY

WIND SHEAR

200 MB STREAMLINES

CHI200 ANOMALIES ANIMATION

The recent update to the SHIPS (Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme) diagnostic report also indicates a reduction in wind shear:

Based on my analysis of the current analyzed forecast information, 94L should continue to become gradually more organized with gradual strengthening, and could become a Tropical Depression within the next 36 – 48 hours.  Based on the forecast conditions, shortly thereafter, this could become Tropical Storm TAMMY.  Right now, given that the system is still organizing, future intensity will remain to be seen, however updated guidance now brings this to a category 2 hurricane at approximately 105 mph.  Right now, this should be taken with a little lower confidence given the LLC is still slowly developing.

The same thing applies to the current forecast track.  Guidance models will have a much better handle on 94L once it becomes organized with a solid LLC.  However, based on the intensity forecast of it becoming a littler stronger than was thought at initialization, and based on my analysis of forecast steering maps, I have to agree at the moment with the 12Z guidance, and forecast hatched area in the NHC 7 day GTWO.  This is preliminary, and could change depending on the intensity of the system.
12Z GUIDANCE

NHC 7 DAY GTWO

Right now, we are just in monitoring mode, and this is nothing to begin worrying about at the moment, however residents of the Windward /Leeward islands at the moment should remain vigilant for any watches or warnings that may be issued down the road.  I will continue to monitor this system over the next 96 – 120 hours for any significant changes that may occur.

The following map will allow to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com