DEVELOPING NOR’EASTER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAR. 12, 2023…3:30 P.M. EDT4 min read
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Based on my analysis of the ECMWF, GFS, and NAM models, an area of lower pressure traversing the southern / SE tier of states will begin to develop a closed surface low very early Monday morning IVO the Outer Banks. This low is forecast to initially move toward the ENE before heading northward near 40 deg. N, and performing a cyclonic loop prior to moving away from the U.S. coast by Wednesday, then heading due east. This motion will allow for the system to enter the Gulf of Maine, where the low will deepen to around 971 – 973 mb (28.67 to 28.73 in). As the low deepens, surface winds over the water will attain moderate tropical storm strength of around 45 – 60 mph. Areas within the onshore flow from this may experience some beach erosion in some areas, as well as some minor coastal flooding, especially along the shores of Massachusetts, especially the Cape Cod area. Significant wave heights could reach between 18 – 20 ft in some areas. Small craft should remain in port during this storm, and it is recommended that residence in the affected areas remain off the beach. The possibility of widespread power outages does exist.
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP ANOMALIES
ECMWF AND GFS SURFACE WINDS FORECAST
ECMWF AND WAVEWATCH 3 SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION
This system will be responsible for a mixed bag of precipitation, with the most significant totals being that of rain and snowfall. The following animations indicate precipitation totals over the time period from Monday morning to Wednesday morning.
NAM KUCHERA TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE PERIOD
NAM TOTAL PRECIPITATION BY TYPE FOR THE PERIOD
NAM RADAR BASE REFLECTIVITY BY PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE PERIOD
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area. Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
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Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
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