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DEVELOPING GOMEX LOW PRESSURE / GALE CENTER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED DEC. 15, 2023…9:35 A.M. EST

6 min read

ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.  Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion.  When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented.  After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly.  This will have an effect on my actual forecast.  Unless otherwise noted, satellite imagery is provided through Weathernerds.org

Greetings everyone!
To save a little time and graphics space, I will be using the ECMWF forecast maps only, for the developing storm system.

Analysis of the ECMWF and GFS global models indicate a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop in the Gulf of Mexico (GOMEX), by late evening on Dec. 16th, to early morning on the 17th.  This should consolidate into a gale center and eventually cross the Florida west coast early Sunday morning.  Models are in better agreement this morning on path, size, and evolution of this.  Analysis of the current thermal wind forecast diagrams from the ECMWF, GFS and JMA global models now indicate this low could briefly become borderline shallow warm core to warm core (asymmetric).  Asymmetric indicates the system would be frontal in nature.  Right now, I won’t know if the system will try to acquire sub-tropical characteristics due to the warm GOMEX waters, until I see how it evolves.  Based on the latest runs of the ECMWF and GFS models, the low is now forecast to skirt the coast of the Eastern Seaboard, once it exits the Florida peninsula.  Having access to the Gulfstream, the low could POSSIBLY try to become subtropical.

However, 2 things stand out to me in analysis this morning that would indicate it remains more of a baroclininc system, vice sub-tropical or tropical.  1.) The analysis indicates there will be at least 30 – 40 kts of SWLY wind shear over the system. 2.)  Based on forecast surface maps, the system  remains frontal in nature, with an occluded frontal boundary attached to the center.  As this develops and moves closer to the Florida coastline, gale force winds (moderate tropical storm force) may be experienced along portions of both the west and east coastal areas of Florida (mainly east coast), and along a good portion of the SEUS and Eastern Seaboard.  Wind gusts could reach hurricane force along near or along the coast for portions of the Eastern Seaboard and isolated portions of the SEUS . 

Wave heights along the coastal areas of LA., MS., AL., and N. FL., could reach 7 – 10 ft near the coast in some areas, and from the Big Bend area of the FL. to the west central coast.  As this system crosses over the Florida Peninsula and moves northward, wave heights could reach 12 ft near or at the coast along the Florida east coast, 10 – 14 ft along portions of the Eastern Seaboard, and 25 – 30 ft well offshore. This situation could cause some beach erosion, along with some coastal flooding especially along the Eastern Seaboard. 

It is recommended small craft remain in port until the system passes and seas subside.  Residents that may be affected by this storm, should remain away from beaches and out of the water, due to the threat of rip currents.  Both models indicate moderate to heavy rainfall in the 5 day forecast period, and are split in both rainfall total, and pattern.  Based on the possibility of this briefly becoming shallow warm core and the forecast for strong upper level shear, I cannot rule out the probability of isolated weak tornado activity as the low comes ashore over the Florida peninsula due to the combination of shear, and surface frictional effects.  I had the feeling yesterday, that the SPC would upgrade the severe weather threat, to which they did, this morning.  The SPC has issued a SLIGHT risk for severe thunderstorms in the current day 2 outlook.  The first SPC map will be linked to the outlook for you to have the information at hand.
SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED)
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TORNADO PROBABILITY
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HAIL
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DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS
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ECMWF  MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST MAP ANIMATIONS
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-mslp_norm_anom-1702598400-1702728000-1702900800-80
ecmwf-deterministic-east-mslp_norm_anom-1702598400-1702900800-1702965600-80
ECMWF SURFACE WINDS FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-wnd10m_stream_mph-1702598400-1702728000-1702900800-80
ecmwf-deterministic-east-wnd10m_stream_mph-1702598400-1702900800-1702965600-80
ECMWF SURFACE WIND GUSTS FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-gust_mph-1702598400-1702728000-1702900800-80
ecmwf-deterministic-east-gust_mph-1702598400-1702900800-1702965600-80
WAVEWATCH 3 WAVE HEIGHTS AND DIRECTION FORECAST
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ww3-east-ww3_sig_wave_height_dir-1702620000-1702900800-1702965600-80
ECMWF, AND WPC 5 DAY PRECIPITATION FORECAST
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EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
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The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.  I will not be available to forecast on Sunday, so I highly recommend you use this map for any weather statements or warnings for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
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RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)
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You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



palmharborforecastcenter

2023-12-15 14:26:50

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