February 20, 2024

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DEVELOPING GOMEX LOW PRESSURE / GALE CENTER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED DEC. 11, 2023…11:10 A.M. EDT

5 min read

ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.  Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion.  When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented.  After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly.  This will have an effect on my actual forecast.  Unless otherwise noted, satellite imagery is provided through Weathernerds.org

Greetings everyone!
Analysis of the ECMWF and GFS global models indicate a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop in the Gulf of Mexico (GOMEX), by late evening on Dec. 15th, to early morning on the 16th.  This should consolidate somewhat into a gale center and eventually cross the Florida west coast.  Models are totally divergent on path, size and evolution on this, so as of the current analysis, is hard to pinpoint a very accurate forecast solution right now.  As this develops and moves closer to the Florida coastline, gale force winds may be experienced along portions of both the west and east coastal areas of Florida, and a long a portion of the Eastern Seaboard.  Wave heights along the coastal areas of LA., MS., AL., and N. FL., and especially the east coast of FL. and the SEUS could cause some minor beach erosion, along with some minor coastal flooding.It is recommended small craft remain in port until the system passes and seas subside.  Both models indicate moderate to heavy rainfall in the 7 day forecast period, and are split as well in both rainfall total (anywhere up to 5 – 6 inches), as well as the rainfall pattern.  Right now, I don’t believe this would be sub-tropical, as the thermal wind forecast from the Cyclone Phase Evolution Analysis site indicates this to remain cold core.  The GFS hints at the system possibly becoming a Nor’easter affecting portions of the NEUS, however with the totally different solutions in both models, I am going to continue to monitor this situation during this week, and will update possibly Wednesday or Thursday, hopefully with a more accurate forecast.

ECMWF AND GFS MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST MAP ANIMATIONS
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ECMWF AND GFS SURFACE WINDS FORECAST
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WAVEWATCH 3 WAVE HEIGHTS AND DIRECTION FORECAST
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ECMWF WAVE HEIGHTS AND DIRECTION FORECAST
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ECMWF, GFS AND WPC 7 DAY PRECIPITATION FORECAST
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CYCLONE PHASE EVOLUTION THERMAL WIND FORECAST
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The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
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RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)
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You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



palmharborforecastcenter

2023-12-11 16:01:04

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