May 23, 2024

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DAY 5 / DAY 6 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK…ISSUED APR. 04, 2024…9:10 A.M. EDT

5 min read

Disclaimer:  This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

The outlined maps you were used to seeing from my F5 DATA software, are no longer around and operational.  This means I have lost quite a bit of data to analyze but I will try to make the severe weather forecasts as accurate and understandable as possible.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/images/SPC_outlook_final_updated.png

This is not a full forecast, but a heads up to give folks time to watch the affected areas.  Forecast indices will be missing from this update, as the models I utilize do not go out this far in the forecast period.  My intention is to issue forecasts on the respective dates regarding the threat of severe weather.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued a 15% risk of severe thunderstorms in the day 5 and day 6 outlooks: FOR THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION AND SMALL PORTION OF SE OK.

…SPC SUMMARY…
…Monday/Day 5 and Tuesday/Day 6… On Monday, an upper-level low is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest, as mid-level flow becomes established across the south-central U.S. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place across the eastern two-thirds of Texas extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. The models continue to suggest that a large cluster of thunderstorms will develop from northeast Texas into Louisiana and southern Arkansas Monday evening. Instability and deep-layer shear should be sufficient for a severe threat.

This moist airmass is forecast to remain in place over the south-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an upper-level low moves through the Desert Southwest. The moist sector is forecast to remain over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The most likely location for convective development Tuesday afternoon would be in parts of north and east Texas, where an MCS may develop. This large cluster could move eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday night. A moist warm sector combined with strong deep-layer shear would support a severe threat, with the stronger cells embedded in the MCS.
SPC DAY 5 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAP (LINKED…CLICK IMAGE)
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SPC DAY 6 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAP
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STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.

The following sites will explain most of these values, and will give you an idea of what to expect:

ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices

THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
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RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)
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You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.

palmharborforecastcenter

2024-04-04 13:02:38

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