Disclaimer: This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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The forecast office will be closed from Feb. 10 until further notice. My wife and I will be leaving for Alabama to visit my mom, who was recently diagnosed with stage 4 cancer.
I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.
The outlined maps you were used to seeing from my F5 DATA software, are no longer around and operational. This means I have lost quite a bit of data to analyze but I will try to make the severe weather forecasts as accurate and understandable as possible.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued a 15% risk of severe thunderstorms in the day 4 outlook:
FROM EASTERN TX ACROSS SOUTHERN LA
Models are in good enough agreement for Sunday/D4, depicting a progressive shortwave trough moving from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley. This system will maintain a positive-tilt overall, but is forecast to deepen. Gradual height falls will overspread the Gulf Coast region on Sunday/D4, as low pressure moves from eastern TX across LA and MS, turning northward into TN by 12Z Monday/D5.
SPC DAY 4 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAP (LINKED…CLICK IMAGE)
Based on my analysis of the current outlook, CIPS forecast model, NAM, and GFS models, the greatest severe threats at the moment based on veering winds, moderate to strong shear, and position of the 500mb jetstreak right entrance region, appear to be damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes, beginning early over eastern Texas, spreading eastward during the afternoon and evening hours, and reaching MS possibly by 12Z on Monday. The greatest chance for severe storms lies within the 15% outline. I will have another update tomorrow, as I had to use all three models (CIPS, NAM and GFS), as the 3km NAM model does not go out far enough in the period from the early morning run. Any tornado activity should remain on the weak side, based on a marginally unstable atmosphere of the current analysis. The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning. Indices meanings can be accessed further on in the synopsis:
SBCAPE: 500 – 1250 j/kg-1
MLCAPE: 500 – 750 j/kg-1
MUCAPE: 500 – 1000 j/kg-1
SRH 0 – 1km: 100 – 200 m2/s2
SRH 0 – 3km: 100 – 200 m2/s2
SRH EFFECTIVE: 100 m2/s2
L. I.: -1
SCP: 1 to 3
0 -6 km SHEAR: 50 – 60 kts
EFF. SHEAR: 40 – 50 kts
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 6.5 – 7.0C
DEWPOINT: 65F – 67F
EHI: 0.4 – 0.8
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 44 – 46
K INDEX: 28 – 32
STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.
SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.
The following sites will explain most of these values, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
THE WEATHER PREDICTION
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area. Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
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