March 4, 2024

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DAY 3 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK…ISSUED DEC. 07, 2023…11:00 A.M. EST

5 min read

Disclaimer:  This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

The outlined maps you were used to seeing from my F5 DATA software, are no longer around and operational.  This means I have lost quite a bit of data to analyze but I will try to make the severe weather forecasts as accurate and understandable as possible.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/images/SPC_outlook_final_updated.png

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued a SLIGHT risk of severe thunderstorms:
FROM EAST TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from east Texas across the Lower Mississippi Valley, mainly on Saturday afternoon into the early evening.
SPC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAP
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PROBABILISTIC
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Based on my analysis of the current outlook, CIPS forecast model, and NAM, all severe threats may be possible during Saturday afternoon into early Saturday evening.  Based on analysis of indices and parameters, the main threat at the moment appears to be wind and hail, although this could change over the next 2 days.  Though tornado parameters are on the lower end, isolated tornado activity cannot be ruled out.  Based on analysis of the current NAM run, this activity may occur more toward the southern portion of the outline near southern Arkansas, over Louisiana, and south half of eastern Texas.  A brief summary of the analysis still indicates veering winds with height. This would still indicate rotation in the atmosphere with moderately favorable wind shear of 40 – 50 kts and effective shear of 30 – 40 kts.  Although analysis indicated a weak mid level lapse rate, shear and storm relative helicity values could indicate an environment for producing weak tornadoes.  Based on analysis of the current significant tornado parameter forecast values, energy helicity index values, and SRH, I  am currently not looking for strong tornado activity at this particular time.  Storm mode could be more on the order of clustered to linear in nature. The following forecast  parameters indicate a moderately unstable environment.  I will be watching the situation over the next few days, as being this far out in the period, parameters can change and possibly become stronger.  The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning:
SBCAPE: 1000 – 1500 j/kg-1
MLCAPE: 1000 – 1500 j/kg-1
MUCAPE: 1000 – 1500 j/kg-1
SRH: 100 – 200 m2/s2
L. I.: -1 to -3
STP: 1
SCP: 2 to 4
EFF. SHEAR: 30 – 40 kts
0 -6 km SHEAR: 40 – 50 kts

MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 6.0 – 6.5C
DEWPOINT: 63F – 68F
EHI: 1.0 – 2.0
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 48 – 52
K INDEX: 25 – 30

STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.

The following sites will explain most of these values, and will give you an idea of what to expect:

ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices

THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
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RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)
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You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

palmharborforecastcenter

2023-12-07 15:46:54

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