January 26, 2023

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DAY 2 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK…STRONG, LONG TRACK TORNADOES POSSIBLE…FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 28, 2022…9:15 EST

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Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

The outlined maps you were used to seeing from my F5 DATA software, are no longer around and operational.  This means I have lost quite a bit of data to analyze but I will try to make the severe weather forecasts as accurate and understandable as possible.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued a MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS in the current DAY 2 outlook…FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI…NORTHEAST LOUISIANA…SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS…EXTREME SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and wind damage, along with some hail, are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening, extending into the overnight period across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and parts of the Southeast. A few strong/long-track tornadoes will be possible.
SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED)
day2otlk_1730

TORNADO PROBABILITY
day2probotlk_1730_torn

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.

Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
HAIL PROBABILITY
day2probotlk_1730_hail

DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND PROBABILITY
day2probotlk_1730_wind
Based on my analysis of information contained in the SPC outlook, and analysis of severe weather and tornado parameters and indices, dew points of 60+, favorable low and deep level shear, along with strong LLJ (Low Level Jet) and modest mid level lapse rates, a tornado threat will exist, provide forecast parameters do not weaken.  Based on analysis of SCP and STP data (Supercell Composite Parameter) and (Significant Tornado Parameter), there may be the threat of some isolated, strong, long track tornadoes, mainly within the ENHANCED and MODERATE risk areas.
The following indices were analyzed from the NAM model through various sites:
SBCAPE: 1500 – 2000 j/kg

MLCAPE: 1000 – 1500 j/kg
SRH: 200 – 350 m2/s2
L. I.: -1 to -5
STP: 1 to 8
SCP: 1 to 12

STP EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

SCP EXPLAINED
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.

The following sites will explain most of these values, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices

THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

The following animations are from the NAM model, and cover the period from 2:00 p.m. CST to MIDNIGHT CST:
NAM STP ANIMATION
nam-nest-scentus-sig_tor-1669658400-1669752000-1669788000-80

NAM SCP ANIMATION:
nam-nest-scentus-supercell_comp-1669658400-1669752000-1669788000-80

The following maps are from the Storm Prediction Center SREF model, and show the probability of STP values greater than 5 and SCP values of greater than 6
STP VALUE >5 PROBABILITY
SREF_prob_sigtor_5__f033

SREF_prob_sigtor_5__f036
SCP VALUE >6 PROBABILITY
SREF_prob_supercomp_6__f033

SREF_prob_supercomp_6__f036
The areas in the STP map are where I would expect the best chance for strong and long tracked tornadoes to occur

Please use the following maps for tomorrow, which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches.  You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics.  I am also providing the SPC homepage link, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
Valid MD Image
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
Valid WW Image
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-11-29 02:01:36

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