November 27, 2022

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DAY 2 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK…ISSUED OCT. 22, 2022…3:45 P.M. EDT

6 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. 

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

IF anyone would like hurricane preparedness information, and information on pet friendly shelters, please email me with the subject line HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS.

STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 19
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 –  5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:        7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 11
TOTAL HURRICANES:       5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      2

U. S. LANDFALLS: 3

2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON NAMES:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season.

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued a SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS in the current DAY 2 outlook: ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and hail are possible from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest Sunday evening into early Monday morning. Additional isolated severe thunderstorms may produce strong gusts and hail across parts of the southern Plains early Monday morning.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK LINK:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED TO SPC)
day2otlk_1730
TORNADO PROBABILITY
day2probotlk_1730_torn
HAIL PROBABILITY
day2probotlk_1730_hail
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND PROBABILITY
day2probotlk_1730_wind
Based on my analysis of various models regarding forecast severe weather parameters and indices, the thermodynamic profile indicates the forecast of a marginally to moderately atmosphere by tomorrow evening over the midwest.  CAPE values are forecast to be around the 500 – 750 J/kj range which indicates weak instability.  This, along with some other indices values indicate the tornado threat to be low at this time.  However, some other variables suggest the main threat to be hail and strong thunderstorm gusts, given the presence of a 50 – 70 kt jetstreak and moderate lift based on the forecast Lifted Index, and somewhat low CIN (
Convective INhibition)

STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast values were low, however SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) values were a little higher, indicating a good chance for some isolated supercell development within the higher values areas.  I will be posting maps of the various forecast indices and parameters that were analyzed.  This will be a bit longer, as the F5 DATA Severe Weather forecast software (for those who remember), has been discontinued, so I cannot draw the areas where the greatest threat lies, as I have no way now to overlap the various severe weather indices layers.  Based on model timing, the onset of the greatest severe weather threat begins approximately 7:00 p.m. CDT.

STP EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

SCP EXPLAINED
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.

Based on my analysis of both the NAM and HRRRv4 models, the following forecast severe and tornado indices were analyzed and values represent a blend of both models:
SBCAPE: 500 – 750 j/kg
SRH: 200 – 300 m2/s2
L. I.: -2 to -4
EHI: 1 – 1.5
STP: 1
CIN: -100 to -300
DEWPOINT: 60F – 65F

The following sites will explain most of these values, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices

THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

The following forecast maps will provide you with the severe indices.  The higher the index, the greater threat of severe weather and/or tornadic activity:
HRRRv4 MODEL 7:00 P.M. CDT SUPERCELL COMPOSITE
hrrr_supercell_mw_36

HRRRv4 MODEL 10:00 P.M. CDT SUPERCELL COMPOSITE
hrrr_supercell_mw_39
HRRRv4 MODEL 7:00 P.M. CDT SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER
hrrr_tornado_mw_36HRRRv4 MODEL 10:00 P.M. CDT SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER
hrrr_tornado_mw_39
NAM LIFTED INDEX 7:00 P.M. CDT
NAM_221_2022102212_F36_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUNDNAM LIFTED INDEX 10:00 P.M. CDT
NAM_221_2022102212_F39_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND
NAM EHI 7:00 P.M. CDT
NAM_221_2022102212_F36_EHI_1000_M
NAM EHI 10:00 P.M. CDT
NAM_221_2022102212_F39_EHI_3000_M
NAM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY 7:00 P.M. CDT
NAM_221_2022102212_F36_HLCY_1000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND
NAM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY 10:00 P.M. CDT
NAM_221_2022102212_F39_HLCY_1000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND
Please use the following maps for all days, which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches.  You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics.  I am also providing the SPC homepage link, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
Valid MD Image
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
Valid WW Image
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed weekend!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-10-22 19:30:02

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