February 22, 2024

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Weather News & Forecast

DAY 2 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK…ISSUED DEC. 08, 2023…11:40 A.M. EST

6 min read

Disclaimer:  This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

The outlined maps you were used to seeing from my F5 DATA software, are no longer around and operational.  This means I have lost quite a bit of data to analyze but I will try to make the severe weather forecasts as accurate and understandable as possible.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/images/SPC_outlook_final_updated.png

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued a SLIGHT risk of severe thunderstorms: FROM EAST TX TO THE TN VALLEY…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Scattered severe thunderstorms with tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will be possible from east Texas to the Tennessee Valley, mainly Saturday afternoon and evening.
SPC DAY 2 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAPS
day2otlk_0700
TORNADO PROBABILITY
day2probotlk_0700_torn
HAIL PROBABILITY
day2probotlk_0700_hail
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS PROBABILITY
day2probotlk_0700_wind

Based on my analysis of the current outlook, CIPS forecast model, and NAM, all severe threats will be possible during Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.  Based on analysis of indices and parameters, the main threat at the moment appears to be wind and hail, although this could change by tomorrow.   Given the forecast of SWLY shear, increased CAPE and Lifted Index values, residents in the slight risk and hail prob. area may experience large hail. Though tornado parameters are on the lower end, tornado activity cannot be ruled out. There is a discrepancy noted in the SPC tornado prob. outline, and the NAM output this morning.  Analysis of the current NAM run suggests the greater probability of tornado activity may occur more toward the southern portion of the outline near southern Arkansas, and over Louisiana, in the earlier portion of the period.  This however, is forecast to shift more into the NEWD extension of the slight risk area.  Given an increase in CAPE values and lifted index values, along with moderately favorable shear, I cannot rule out the possibility of an isolated EF2 tornado, although I am not expecting strong tornadoes at the moment given the SRH and EHI values.  The final analysis tomorrow should tell the story.  A brief summary of the analysis still indicates veering winds with height. I am including forecast wind maps with wind direction drawn in for you to get and idea what is meant by a “veering” wind, giving an idea of the counter-clockwise motion from the upper atmosphere to the surface.  These maps are representing more “speed shear” than “directional shear”.  This mornings analysis still indicated rotation in the atmosphere with moderately favorable wind shear of 40 – 50 kts and effective shear of 30 – 40 kts.  Storm mode could be more on the order of clustered to linear in nature. The following forecast  parameters indicate a moderately unstable environment.  I will be watching the situation over the next few days, as being this far out in the period, parameters can change and possibly become stronger.  The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning:
SBCAPE: 1500 – 2000 j/kg-1
MLCAPE: 1000 – 2000 j/kg-1
MUCAPE: 1000 – 2000 j/kg-1
SRH: 100 – 200 m2/s2
L. I.: -3 to -5
STP: 1 – 3
SCP: 2 to 6
EFF. SHEAR: 30 – 40 kts
0 -6 km SHEAR: 40 – 50 kts

MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 6.0 – 6.5C
DEWPOINT: 64F – 68F
EHI: 1.5 – 2.0
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 50
K INDEX: 25 – 28

STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.

The following are the SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast maps from the NAM model
NAM SCP FORECAST
nam-nest-central-supercell_comp-1702015200-1702144800-1702166400-80

NAM STP FORECAST
nam-nest-central-sig_tor-1702015200-1702144800-1702166400-80

The following maps from the SPC SREF model also indicate STP for 3:00 p.m. and 6:00 p.m. CST
SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f036
SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f039
The following are forecast wind maps from the NAM from 250 mb down to the surface:
nam-nest-central-uv250_stream-2155600
nam-nest-central-z500_speed-2155600
nam-nest-louisiana-z850_speed-2155600
nam-nest-louisiana-wnd10m_stream_mph-2155600
The following sites will explain most of the severe weather and tornado values listed above, and will give you an idea of what to expect:

ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices

THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
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RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)
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You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.

palmharborforecastcenter

2023-12-08 16:28:55

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