June 27, 2022

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DAY 2 ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER RISK SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 04, 2022…8:10 P. M. EDT

5 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Good evening!

I will not be updating on Fri., as I need a small break.  I will however be monitoring an area of low pressure shown moving off the DELMARVA area by Sunday, then supposedly backing SSW and dissipating, as the week progresses.  While I am not expecting anything to develop from this, some of the MJO Phase Space Diagram models indict the MJO may move into phase 8  by mid month.

Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued an ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS in the current DAY 2 outlook: ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS…ARKANSAS…AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Severe storms are likely on Thursday across parts of the southern Plains, Arklatex, Ozarks and lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Damaging wind, hail and a few tornadoes are expected. Isolated severe storms are also possible into the Tennessee Valley.

…SPC SYNOPSIS…
Moderate southwesterlies aloft will move across the southern Plains toward the Lower and Middle MS Valley as an upper low moves across KS and into MO. A weak surface low is forecast to move from eastern OK into MO during the day, with a cold front trailing southwestward into central TX by afternoon. Ahead of the front, ample low-level moisture will exist with 65-70 F dewpoints, and beneath a broad region of 30+ kt southwesterly 850 mb winds. East of the surface low, a warm front will lift rapidly north across TN, southern MO and to the OH River, with a region of enhanced instability and shear developing.
SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK LINK:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
Outlook-category-descriptions
SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day2otlk_1730
TORNADO PROBABILITY
day2probotlk_1730_tornHAIL PROBABILITY
day2probotlk_1730_hailDAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND PROBABILITY
day2probotlk_1730_wind
Based on my analysis of the SPC DAY 2 Outlook, the setup of deep layer shear being parallel to the frontal boundary, high surface dewpoints, and SWLY 850 mb winds of 30+ kts will allow for a complex storm mode and possible bowing segments.  This would allow for damaging straight line winds and gusts.   Ample low level shear and instability may also allow for embedded supercells capable of producing tornadoes.  Right now, as of the current analyzed information from various models, I am not expecting any strong tornadoes, however there could always be an isolated incident, if SPC upgrades the risk as they did today.  As of current information, it appears large hail and damaging thunderstorm winds are the biggest factor. 

I will not be able to list indices or the F5 DATA maps as I usually do, as I have contacted the owner, and their server is not responding this evening.  In turn, I am unable to pull up the info I need.  However, please follow the NAM 3 km map animations below, as they will provide you a decent idea of where the indices will be located.  This is where supercells and tornado activity should have the highest probabilities

Based on my analysis of both the NAM-WRF model from F5 DATA, and the NAM 3 km model, the following forecast severe and tornado indices were analyzed and values represent a blend of both models:
SBCAPE:
MLCAPE:
SRH:
L. I.:
SWEAT:
EHI:
VGP:
STP:

STP EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

SCP EXPLAINED
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.

VGP: The VGP(Vorticity Generation Parameter) is meant to estimate the rate of tilting and stretching of horizontal vorticity by a thunderstorm updraft. Values greater than 0.2 m s-2 suggest an increasing possibility of tornadic storms.

The following sites will explain most of these values, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices

THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

The following NAM 3km animations indicate the locations and strength of the forecast STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) index, and SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) index.

NAM 3km STP (10:00 A. M. CDT MAY 05 – 10:00 P. M. CDT MAY 05)
nam-nest-central-sig_tor-1651687200-1651762800-1651806000-80
NAM 3km SCPnam-nest-central-supercell_comp-1651687200-1651762800-1651806000-80
Please use the following maps for all days, which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches.  You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics.  I am also providing the SPC homepage link, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
Valid MD Image
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
Valid WW Image
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-05-05 00:09:50

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