September 25, 2022

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DAY 2 ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER RISK SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 03, 2022…8:00 P. M. EDT

6 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued an ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS in the current DAY 2 outlook: FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Storms may produce tornadoes and very large hail Wednesday afternoon and evening from the eastern Texas Panhandle and northwest Texas across southern Oklahoma. A strong tornado or two is possible within this corridor. Damaging winds will also be possible across much of Oklahoma Wednesday night, including the threat of isolated tornadoes. The tornado risk may extend as far east as the western Ozarks.

…SPC SYNOPSIS…
An upper trough will slowly progress eastward across CO and NM during the day, with gradual height falls into the central and southern Plains. A broad region of 50+ kt 500 mb winds will overspread the region, with high-level winds to 70-80 kt over the High Plains. At the surface, low pressure will develop along the NM/TX border, with a warm front moving north across TX and into central OK by 00Z. A dryline will set up across the central TX Panhandle and South Plains, with strong heating. Meanwhile, a cold front will be surging southward across western KS and the OK/TX Panhandles mainly after 00Z. The northward extent of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints behind this warm front will play a key role regarding conditional significant tornado potential and storm coverage, as a broad low-level jet enhances low-level shear.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK LINK:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
Outlook-category-descriptions
SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day2otlk_1730
TORNADO PROBABILITY
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.

Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point
day2probotlk_1730_torn
HAIL PROBABILITY
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point
day2probotlk_1730_hailDAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND PROBABILITY
day2probotlk_1730_wind
Based on my analysis of the SPC DAY 2 Outlook, the thermodynamic setup will again, allow for all hazards.  A combination of forecast dewpoints in the mid -upper 60’sF, strong daytime heating, the presence of  a LLJ enhancing low level shear, deep layer effective shear, and SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 will support severe/significant hail, and the possibility of some strong/significant (EF2+) tornadoes. 

Based on my analysis of both the NAM-WRF model from F5 DATA, and the NAM 3 km model, the following forecast severe and tornado indices were analyzed and values represent a blend of both models:
SBCAPE: 1500 – 3000 j/kg
MLCAPE: 1000 – 2000 j/kg
SRH: 200 – 300 m2/s2
L. I.: -4 to -9
SWEAT: 325 – 525
EHI: 1 – 5
VGP: 0.3 – 0.8
STP: 1 – 7

STP EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

SCP EXPLAINED
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.

VGP: The VGP(Vorticity Generation Parameter) is meant to estimate the rate of tilting and stretching of horizontal vorticity by a thunderstorm updraft. Values greater than 0.2 m s-2 suggest an increasing possibility of tornadic storms.

The following sites will explain most of these values, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices

THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

The following outlined areas indicate where the modeling suggests the best / highest probabilities of where tornadoes could occur.  The strongest of the indices will be located where the SPC has the hatched area on the map, or in and near the ENHANCED risk outline. Based on analysis of the indices, the values begin to increase at around 1:00 p. m. CDT, and peak between 4:00 p. m. and 10:00 p. m. CDT, then begin weaken slowly after that. 
F5 DATA NAM – WRF 1:00 P. M. CDT
f5.torn.1pm
4:00 P. M. CDT
f5.torn.4pm
7:00 P. M. CDT
f5.torn.7pm
10:00 P. M. CDT
f5.torn.10pm
The following NAM 3km animations indicate the locations and strength of the forecast STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) index, and SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) index.
NAM 3km STP (1:00 P. M. CDT MAY 04 – 1:00 A. M. CDT MAY 05)
nam-nest-central-sig_tor-1651600800-1651687200-1651730400-80NAM 3km SCPnam-nest-central-supercell_comp-1651600800-1651687200-1651730400-80
Please use the following maps for all days, which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches.  You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics.  I am also providing the SPC homepage link, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
Valid MD Image
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
Valid WW Image
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-05-04 00:00:09

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