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DAY 2 ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 05, 2022…8:10 P. M. EDT

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Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued an ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS in the current DAY 2 outlook: ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO WESTERN GEORGIA…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over a large part of the southeastern states on Friday. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes may occur throughout the period.

…SPC SYNOPSIS…
A potent shortwave trough will move eastward across the OH and TN valleys, with substantial height falls and increasing winds aloft. Low pressure is forecast to travel eastward along the OH River during the day, reaching WV by 00Z. A cold front will extend southward from the low across eastern KY and TN, trailing west/southwestward across central AL and into southern MS/LA. Meanwhile, a warm front will lift northward across NC and into VA during the day, aided by southwesterly 850 mb flow around 40 kt. Ample low-level moisture will exist across the warm sector, and strong shear will favor severe storms throughout the day. Several areas of concentrated severe potential may materialize, with the potential for a few tornadoes.

Please visit the SPC day 2 link for the full report from the SPC.
SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK LINK:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
Outlook-category-descriptions
SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

TORNADO PROBABILITY

HAIL PROBABILITY

DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND PROBABILITY

Based on my analysis of the SPC DAY 2 Outlook, the thermodynamic setup will allow for all hazards with the main risk appearing to be hail and tornado activity.  Based on indices values in the outlook, and analysis of the NAM-WRF model from F5 DATA, and from the NAM 3 km model, the strongest indices at peak tend to lie over the ENHANCED risk area, and within the 5% tornado probability area over VA/NC.  Based on the possibility of SPC doing a categorical upgrade tomorrow, I cannot rule out an isolated strong tornado within the ENHANCED risk area.

Based on my analysis of both the NAM-WRF model from F5 DATA, and the NAM 3 km model, the following forecast severe and tornado indices were analyzed and values represent a blend of both models:
SBCAPE: 1500 – 3000 j/kg
MLCAPE: 500 – 1500 j/kg
MUCAPE: 2000 j/kg

SRH: 200 – 300 m2/s2
L. I.: -2 to -6
SWEAT: 250 – 300
EHI: 1 – 3
VGP: 0.3 – 0.5
STP: 1 – 5

STP EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

SCP EXPLAINED
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.

VGP: The VGP(Vorticity Generation Parameter) is meant to estimate the rate of tilting and stretching of horizontal vorticity by a thunderstorm updraft. Values greater than 0.2 m s-2 suggest an increasing possibility of tornadic storms.

The following sites will explain most of these values, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices

THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

The following outlined areas indicate where the modeling suggests the best / highest probabilities of where tornadoes could occur.  Based on analysis of the indices, the values begin to increase at around 10:00 a. m. CDT, and peak between 4:00 p. m. and 7:00 p. m. CDT, then begin weakening slowly after that. 
F5 DATA NAM – WRF 10:00 A. M. CDT

1:00 P. M. CDT


4:00 P. M. CDT


7:00 P. M. CDT


The following NAM 3km animations indicate the locations and strength of the forecast STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) index, and SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) index.
NAM 3km STP (10:00 A. M. CDT MAY 06 – 10:00 P. M. CDT MAY 06)

NAM 3km SCP

Please use the following maps for all days, which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches.  You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics.  I am also providing the SPC homepage link, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
Valid MD Image
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
Valid WW Image
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-05-06 00:12:22

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