Disclaimer: This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).
I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.
The outlined maps you were used to seeing from my F5 DATA software, are no longer around and operational. This means I have lost quite a bit of data to analyze but I will try to make the severe weather forecasts as accurate and understandable as possible.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued an ENHANCED risk of severe thunderstorms OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST…AND FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE…
Severe thunderstorms are expected from the middle to upper Texas Coast Tuesday afternoon, spreading into parts of southeastern Louisiana and across coastal Mississippi, Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle by Wednesday morning. Damaging winds and several tornadoes are anticipated, with a conditional threat of a strong tornado.
SPC DAY 2 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAPS (THIS MAP LINKED)
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Based on my analysis in part of the current SPC day 2 outlook, and various forecast severe weather and tornado indices, it appears the main severe threat may be damaging winds in the form of thunderstorm gusts and straight-line winds. Based on some of the indices, there is a good probability that some of the tornado activity could spawn some isolated strong tornadoes. Based on forecast graphics from the NAM model, the majority of severe activity may remain closer toward the coastal areas and just offshore in the GOMEX. Strongest supercells and tornado activity should be within the SPC 10% hatched area, within the ENHANCED risk outline. This however does not mean that a strong tornado or two cannot touchdown, and travel into the lesser severe risk areas. Based on the very high SRH forecast, effective shear value, combined with a forecast mid level jetstreak of 100 kts with winds out of the WSW, and 850 mb level winds of 70 – 80 kts backing from the S to ESE, supercells should have very strong rotation present. This, combined with the moderate CAPE values and STP values could very well produce isolated strong tornadoes (EF2 – EF5). Based on forecast position of the 500 mb jetstreak, and low level (850 mb jet), the ENHANCED and lesser risk areas will fall under the Right Rear entrance region of both jets. Based on the current forecast values or should there be an increase in the strength of the indices (as has been the case in the past 2 severe events), there could be a slight chance for an increase to a MODERATE risk over a small portion of the ENHANCED risk outline. This again, will all depend on what forecast soundings show tomorrow, and if conditions modify any.
500 MB JETSTREAK
850 MB JETSTREAK
The following forecast indices and parameters were observed in analysis this evening for the risk area:
SBCAPE: 1000 – 2000 j/kg-1
MLCAPE: 750 – 1000 j/kg-1
SRH: 400 – 800 m2/s2
L. I.: -1 to -5
STP: 1 to 7
SCP: 2 to 14
EFF. SHEAR: 40 – 50 KTS
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 6.5 – 7.0C
DEW POINT: 59F – 65F
REL. HUMIDITY: 88 – 97%
STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.
SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.
The following sites will explain most of these values, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
THE WEATHER PREDICTION
Please visit the SPC main site at the following link for tomorrows activity:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
The following are animations of both the SCP and STP currently for tomorrow, however slight changes are possible between now and tomorrows model runs. The animation runs from 12:00 noon to 3:00 a.m. CST. The greater the value, the greater the risk to an area.
NAM MODEL SCP FORECAST
NAM MODEL STP FORECAST
Please visit my site again for the severe event to use the following maps, which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches. You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics. I have provided the SPC homepage link above, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area. Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: email@example.com
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
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