May 13, 2021

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Cooler and Still Unsettled Today

2 min read


Hello everyone!

Today will feature cooler temps and continued unsettled weather as another wave of low pressure develops and passes to our south. This storm will slide just far enough offshore that we won’t see significant impacts, but it will bring a period of light rain/snow to southern areas this afternoon.

Here’s a look at the pattern across the eastern US this morning. Our storm is currently over far NW South Carolina and is racing off to the east-northeast. This storm is loaded with moisture but most of it will stay off to our south, deflected by the incoming Arctic front. This is *almost* a perfect setup for a massive snowstorm but alas the ingredients are just a little out of place.

Snow will start falling lightly later this morning across western NH.

By this afternoon, flurries will be spreading into Maine and we’ll start to watch for the development of an elusive NORLUN trough which is depicted here on the HRRR model’s forecast radar imagery. A NORLUN trough is basically a mini-front that marks a boundary between cold air to the west and moisture-rich air to the east. Convergence and some instability along the trough axis helps to force a band of narrow but somewhat heavy snow (or rain). Right now, guidance is suggesting this band might set up somewhere between Brunswick and York. This NORLUN trough isn’t strong enough or long-lasting enough to produce a prolific event but it could drop 1-3″ over a relatively small area while the rest of the region will be lucky to pick up a dusting-1″.

Flurries will taper off this afternoon outside the mountains where strengthening upslope flow will keep snow showers going.

Arctic air pours into the region tonight and tomorrow ahead of our next storm scheduled for Thursday.

Temps today will range from the upper 20s up north to the mid/upper 30s along the coast south of Portland.

-Jack



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