July 20, 2024

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Coastal Low Today. Models Replace It with Another Coastal Low. Pattern Set Up for Tropical Trouble with Coastal Cruisers in an El Nino Year! A Rant on the Seaweed of My Childhood! Venetian Pool Coral Gables…

8 min read


Using this filter on Windy.com to show you that you can go to any weather cam along the map and get a fast, seamless view of the beach, mountain or watch sunrise somewhere far away to your West. There are lots of weather cams around, but often they go wonky when you want to use them and it’s frustrating. It’s one of many filters that come with the package if you subscribe to Windy.Com and I do. Not expensive, crazy cheap sales and you get a lot for your money. You can see there’s “rain” over my house in Raleigh this minute and it’s delightfully 59 degrees. This is the second coastal low in a set and if models are correct another one will develop that will have better chances of light development in what is a favorable area for tropical systems. Luckily the water is not so warm here yet as we are having a plesant cool start to summer in this neck of the woods and I’d like to keep it that way as long as possible if my wish counts. Born and bred in South Florida I have had enough hot, humid weather to last me a lifetime or two so cool mornings with light rain make me feel refreshed, happy and alive! In the mood to write this morning, while I listen to the rain with the windows wide open enjoy the long blog or just look at the pics and listen to the music!

Current image this morning.

Zero percent chance of developing.

100% chance of rain.

The current system as seen from Myrtle Beach, one of my favorite beaches is below. My thought being you can probably get a good deal on a room tonight there, but do I really want to drive 3 plus hours to get there or just hang out here at home? Loving the feel of the weather today too much to go anywhere except maybe out for Ice Cream or the Farmer’s Market for some fresh produce.

The incredibly beautiful coastal low (with zero percent chances of forming) may be followed in the not so distant future if models are correct and remember this is the second coastal low so far that has formed and strolled up the coastline after forming down in the Bahamas.

EURO for June 4th at 8 PM.

Third Coastal Low in the same spot!

Sure looks the same …doesn’t it?

Strong weather in 1st week of June.

June too soon as the saying goes.

What is non tropical will eventually….

…become tropical systems along the coastline.

Something to think about.

Compare Tuesday, June 6th above..

with the current signature today below.

That’s a pattern.

Now let’s talk El Nino.

It’s here and it’s growing.

I cut the image above down to a smaller image from the usual larger image we look at that shows the whole Atlantic and most of the Pacific, it’s distracting and I want you all to focus here. Most people when asked will tell you that El Nino happens out in the Pacific (to the West) somewhere South of California and it grows West into the Pacific. The reality of the map above shows you El Nino forms due South of Biloxi, Mobile, Tampa and the Carolinas if you move your eyes on up the coast. Many Americans think South America is South of California, when most of Florida is West of most of South America. This map shows the reality well and it also shows how as El Nino develops the shear associated with it shuts down the Caribbean for tropical development usually.  The problem is that the stronger tropical waves survive and get up into the Gulf of Mexico closer to land where shear is barely there and can intensify close in before landfall. Or development occurs off the Florida coast near the Bahamas and IF there is a front calling to it …it pulls North towards the Carolinas to run away with the front. Or it slams into Florida if there is a blocking ridge. El Ninos lessen the total number of named storms but they also have delivered some of the worst Major Hurricanes in history to places that felt “safe” due to the lower number of named storms in the slower El Nino Hurricane Season. 

While the Deep SW Caribbean may get shut down by the growing El Nino, it will seed systems that will develop elsewhere. On the most basic level we can say “stormy weather” moves out of the Caribbean into friendlier waters where there is less shear and the danger of close in development rears it’s ugly face when we have this pattern. What this means is it will be way harder for tropical waves moving  West into the Caribbean to develop and slam into Central America. If the shear is strong it’ll protect the Islands and tropical waves will pull North of the Islands or become Fish Storms out in the Atlantic. There are always exceptions to every rule.

There are 3 areas that need to pay close attention this year in particular. 

The first area includes the beautiful cities along the Gulf of Mexico facing out over the blue water that’ll be way warmer down the road than it is now and can support fast, rapidly intensifying tropical development. 1969 was a weak El Nino and Hurricane Camille began as a long tracking tropical wave that was unable to gain traction in the deep Caribbean but as it pulled North it found it’s sweet spot and it slammed into the Gulf Coast and dragged it’s heavy tropical rain signature across a good part of North America. 

The second area is the state of Florida that sticks out into the water as if it’s begging to be hit by a tropical entity. It’s also open to development from tropical disturbances that cross Florida from the West and end up over the Gulfstream. And, it’s very prone to having storms ramp up in the warm waters of the Bahamas and when some high builds in and blocks it’s movement to the North and slams into South Florida. Or the system wanders along the coastline moving North, clinging to the coast and feeding off of the warm Gulf Stream and that’s our third area being the Carolinas.

The Carolinas is where hurricanes often go to make landfall after thumbing their nose at Florida on their way North as Miami kids stand at the beach with foamy waves and a strong breeze feeling cheated out of a hurricane that went to the Outer Banks in NC. As a kid it’s annoying as hell, as an adult surveying everything in your house that could be ruined from a Major Hurricane it’s more like “hasta la vista, baby” and life goes on in Florida as if nothing bad was ever gonna happen while most of East NC is under water from a Hurricane named Floyd. Carolina Hurricanes can also slide up the coast towards the Mid Atlantic, keep that in mind. 

El Nino is for real, deal with it.

Hurricane Season comes with an El Nino or no El Nino it’s part of the way the atmosphere moves around our very alive planet and it’s the one natural disaster you can prepare for and/or get out of the way of if you are paying attention.

Pay attention!

For my “I want to vent” part of the blog, keep reading

The Weather Channel is doing a story about “seaweed” as if it was just discovered as a new species or an invasion from outer space. I’m sorry but I grew up in Miami and there were times you just didn’t go to Crandon Park to the beach as for some reason it had more seaweed than other beaches. If you put your head under the water, when you came up for air it felt like the creature from the black lagoon was going to grab you and not let go. That’s a real thing by the way.  During those years when Sea Weed was an issue locals would swim in their pools or their friend’s pools and or go to a beach that spent a fortune every morning taking said seaweed off the beach. Some years it was so inhospitable everyone would pack up and go home fast…where some neighbor told you annoyingly “told you not to go to Crandon” and yeah they were right but my parents didn’t listen to the neighbors.  Miami also had huge Rock Pits where people swam (carefully) and went water skiing, boating and partying so we were not locked in to “the beach” with it’s sometimes awful seaweed! No seaweed and a bit of a Redneck Yacht Club feel to it, Mama didn’t like dangerous rock pits so no one told Mama…

Cycles of seaweed have been issues for years. Nice they are studying it. Always good to get more data, but when I was a child the seaweed invasion was epic and shut down the beach for most of the summer. Only tourists from Up North go to the beach in the winter to swim 😉 And, the cool kids went to the Venetian Pool in Coral Gables. There are caves there, the really cool kids would sneak into the caves but it comes as a price as it’s pricey but way cheaper than Disney and you don’t have to sit in the car between your baby brothers fighting with eachother for 4 hours! Time is money, use that money wisely, check out the Venetian Pool if you are ever in the area. Link below…

More than you ever wanted to know about Venetian Pool, but I’ll add there’s a cute pic of me as a little girl clutching my toy showing off what I apparently thought was my curves, even though the curves had not shown up yet. Take it from a local… check it out.

It was all the rage in the 1920s…

..sure someone snuck liquor in!

Real Miamians rarely go to the beach.

Too many tourists LOL!

My kids went up to Hollywood Beach…

…volley ball, ice cream and late night parties.

Make a list of your priorities.

Hurricane Season is pretty much here.

Coastal Lows will be Hurricanes.

Are you ready?

Be ready!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Honestly, woke up with this song in my mind.


Why? Who knows…. 

Enjoy it.

noreply@blogger.com (BobbiStorm)

2023-05-28 14:55:00

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