May 22, 2024

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Cat 5 Lee. Thoughts on Where Lee Will Go Down the Line Past the Islands… Many Questions. Trying to Address Some. We Wait & Watch Lee and the Models..

5 min read

Cat 5 Lee edging closer to the Islands.

Main take away.

Further strengthening forecast!

Short blog this morning as there isn’t much to say as it’s far away, doing it’s thing putting on a show impressing us all with it’s tremendous, immense energy and the reality is there is one question I can’t answer and that is the biggest answer we all want. What will it do way down the road. Will the NHC forecast, that has been spot on so far, suddenly go off the rails and will they have to adjust it in some way as a response to real time changes in both modeling and Lee? And, at this point models change IF and when Lee changes in some way. The front that is forecast to grab it and pull it North is not yet on the map. So we rely on models the way people rely on glasses to improve their vision and bring things into clarity. Honestly glasses break, and sometimes vision gets worse and needs a stronger prescription and actually sometimes it gets better and you need new glasses. My brother and I recently had that “problem” and while that may not seem like a problem, you have to get new glasses and adjust.

Questions in the forecast

Does Lee slow and where does he slow and how long does it slow. Slow or stall? Will it or won’t it?

The issue of intensity further exacerbates the forecast as often they carry their own High Pressure system with them like a portable generator. They can maintain extreme energy levels longer than one would expect and it can also reinforce the direction it’s going in as it steams along without difficulty. 

Intensity maintained can allow a hurricane to plow through higher pressure or shear and at other times it can aid them in ignoring an opportunity to turn. This is not expected, but it’s good to remind you that the timing and speed of the RI while not seen ahead of time to be that fast. The NHC did forecast it rapidly intensifying, they are getting better and so much research has gone into this ability to forecast rapid intensification. Good, but not perfect. Does that mean something is being missed? Or is it just hard to grasp perfectly something forming that in one day goes from 80 MPH to 160 MPH?

The no eyewall replacement is sort of bugging me personally. I have to ask around and research back myself to find some analogs.

I’m not being petty but it’s West side doesn’t look as perfect as it did late last night. Okay, I’m being petty.

Lastly……………….. let’s say Lee gets closer to the East Coast than expected (and include Bahamas into that obviously) almost always when you have an intense hurricane such as Florence or Mitch or Matthew by the time they get further North in latitudes they are no longer a Category 5 or 4 or even a 3. But, it’s hard to stop a train as the NHC learned when Matthew was forecast to turn away from landfall and move out to sea but plowed into South Carolina taking it’s energy into North Carolina and Virginia. The track can change some, intensity can change some but the one thing that doesn’t really change is the huge anount of moisture and “energy” that it is carrying with it and that can give any coastal city it gets too close to one heck of a punch. Mitch did it’s worst damage as a stalled out Tropical Storm, not a Category 5 and Matthew was weaker but wild. Florence was not a Major Cane at landfall, but don’t ask anyone how weak Florence was in North Carolina or if Cantore enjoyed his prolonged stay in Wilmington cut off due to flooding days after landfall. 

When I said “short blog” I meant I’m not putting tons of meaningless images into the blog, but using my words to point out the potential problems with Lee and it’s friend Margot may cause to our part of the world. NHC says …insistently… Lee will not directly impact the Islands and after I see that I’ll feel better. I’m showing the WIND forecast cone as any long impacts from strong winds and squalls can cause damage and destruction, especially IF Lee is moving slowly at that part of the forecast period.

Low chances but chances of impacts.

Minor impacts, high surf.

Then there is Margot obviously.

Last thing I’m mentioning is that the dynamics of the forecast between Lee moving WNW and Margot slowly intensifying can create a high pressure system of sorts between the two and that high pressure system can reinforce Lee’s need to go WNW longer than hoped. The longer Lee goes WNW the faster, sharper Lee has to turn to miss parts of New England and any other land area in it’s path. 

So check back later. 

We will see what models show and if any begin to break either in intensity, direction or timing. Any one change, extrapolated over time will change much down the line. BUT, and I’m putting it in big letters the forecast for stronger fronts way down the line is hopefully on point and at some point Lee will want to go visit the front, like a moth to the flame it will see it, feel it and not be able to ignore it.

We hope. We pray. We watch. We stay prepared and on guard!

We are always amazed at the awe of nature in it’s most intense forms and there have been few as intense as Lee. 

I’ll update on modeling after the next model run and obviously add in the 11 AM info from the NHC, check back later. As I said yesterday tracking Lee is not a sprint but a long distance race and Lee is setting records as we speak!

Besos BobbiStorm

I’ll be back later with more data.

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

I’ll add a song later, check back. (BobbiStorm)

2023-09-08 12:38:00

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