September 25, 2023

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August 18th Tropics Busy. Hilary in Pacific May Send Rain Towards Idaho and Canada! In the Atlantic 4 Areas Being Watched… 2 May Get Names.

3 min read


While it looks busy in the Atlantic….

…all the drama is still in the Pacific.

A look at satellite imagery shows that the wave closest to Africa, the large wave with a big of a spin signature and 70% red chances of attaining a name is the most put together looking wave in this clustered set of waves struggling with SAL. A look at SAL below shows you how difficult development has been out there this year.

This is a look at the Mid Levels, and the Mid Levels in the atmosphere have been extremely dry this Hurricane Season so far. Note the immense reddish orange holding down the waves or trying to suppress them. The larger wave is 98L with 70% chances and due to it’s size it’s stayed alive and taken a bite out of the Mid Level dry air and that’s especially important as behind it is a wave coming off of Africa that shows signs of a weak circulation over Africa and as we near September these are the waves we worry on the most. Further West is the elongated convection of 99L. All the way to the West is the area of persistent convection moving into Florida area and South Florida if fairly well soaked this morning after torrential rains yesterday with gusty winds.  To be clear those rains are part of the Summer Rain that slams Miami often as showers float in from the Everglades with strong gusty weather stronger than many weak tropical systems.

The Atlantic is colorful but nothing big happening.

Hurricane Hilary is huge, massive and moist.

All that moisture will end up far to the North.

A swath from California towards Idaho may get rain.

And rain will be outside that cone.

But you get the idea which way it’s going.

One wonders if the rains will help dampen ..

..the Canadian Fires??

Invest 98L stays out at sea for now.

Should get a name.

Back in early August when people were arguing over whether the predictions for a busy season were toast or were going to verify in August as July was slow I said by August 18th we should have something significan’t going on and we do. We have a Red Hot Invest (shown above) trying to get designated and more than that we have possible close in drama in the Gulf of Mexico. Some models actually show tropical problems closer to the SE coast in the distant modeling frame. So stay tuned.

While it’s not busy with named storms in the Atlantic …where there is smoke there is fire and one if not two of these systems should get a name down the tropical road.

Stay tuned.

I’ll update later today after the next model runs. Especially watching the two areas closest to the US as SAL rules the Atlantic still and often that means storms get named close in to land where it’s a more favorable environment for development.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter, Instagram and Threads (BobbiStorm)

2023-08-18 12:35:00

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