SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 140 MI…230 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…992 MB…29.29 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
* South of Tulum to Punta Allen
* West of Dzilam to Progreso
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Watches will likely be required for a portion of the northern Gulf
Coast later today.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 85.3 West. Zeta is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwestward
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the
next day or so, followed by a turn toward the north Tuesday night.
A faster northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast on
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move near
or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula later today or tonight, move
over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the
northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become
a hurricane later today. Some weakening is likely while Zeta
moves over the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and early Tuesday. Zeta
is forecast to strengthen again while it moves over the southern
Gulf of Mexico later on Tuesday
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.
RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of
Zeta’s track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Cayman
Islands, and central to western Cuba.
Heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf Coast Tuesday
night, spreading inland across eastern Mississippi, Alabama,
northern Georgia during Wednesday, through the southern Appalachians
Wednesday night and into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are
expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small
stream, and minor river flooding.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late today. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning
area in Mexico by late today. Tropical storm conditions could occur
in the warning area in western Cuba beginning later today.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.