Disclaimer: This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Good evening everyone!
I know a bunch of us have been mentioning the upcoming Arctic air intrusion for next week. Since the office will be closed for the weekend (barring any surprise severe weather), I wanted to touch base on this. The Arctic outbreak is courtesy of the SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event that occurred near the end of Dec., and first week of Jan. The following link is a short explanation from the NWS:
SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING
Based on the last run of the ECMWF and GFS global models, it appears the coldest Arctic air will affect the U. S. from the 14th through the 16th of Jan., then again on the 20th. The animation of the NAM model only goes out to 3 and a half days. This will be the coldest air thus far for the year.
ECMWF, GFS AND NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANIMATIONS
Elsewhere, the next major low pressure area to affect the eastern portion of the country around the 20th of the month, originating out of the TN valley region, based on the ECMWF. At the moment, the GFS doesn’t appear too excited about it. I’ll be keeping an eye on it.
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST
Starting Monday, I will begin to send out my hurricane preparedness posts, and tutorials, in between weather updates. I know it seems early, however I want to get everything issued before the start of the season. Albeit the season starts Jun. 01, Tropical Weather Outlooks begin May 15.
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Have a blessed evening.
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
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