February 22, 2024

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Weather News & Forecast

ARCTIC AIR UPDATE…ISSUED JAN 12, 2024…7:45 P.M. EST

4 min read

Disclaimer:  This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good evening everyone!

I know a bunch of us have been mentioning the upcoming Arctic air intrusion for next week.  Since the office will be closed for the weekend (barring any surprise severe weather), I wanted to touch base on this.  The Arctic outbreak is courtesy of the SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming)
event that occurred near the end of Dec., and first week of Jan.  The following link is a short explanation from the NWS:
SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING
https://www.weather.gov/bis/sudden_stratospheric_warming_events

Based on the last run of the ECMWF and GFS global models, it appears the coldest Arctic air will affect the U. S. from the 14th through the 16th of Jan., then again on the 20th.  The animation of the NAM model only goes out to 3 and a half days.  This will be the coldest air thus far for the year.
ECMWF, GFS AND NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANIMATIONS
ecmwf-deterministic-central-t2m_f-1705060800-1705233600-1705752000-80
gfs-deterministic-central-t2m_f-1705060800-1705233600-1705752000-80
nam-218-all-central-t2m_f-1705082400-1705125600-1705384800-80
Elsewhere, the next major low pressure area to affect the eastern portion of the country around the 20th of the month, originating out of the TN valley region, based on the ECMWF.  At the moment, the GFS doesn’t appear too excited about it.  I’ll be keeping an eye on it.
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-neng-mslp_norm_anom-5752000
gfs-deterministic-neng-mslp_norm_anom-5730400
Starting Monday, I will begin to send out my hurricane preparedness posts, and tutorials, in between weather updates.  I know it seems early, however I want to get everything issued before the start of the season.  Albeit the season starts Jun.  01, Tropical Weather Outlooks begin May 15.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening.

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



palmharborforecastcenter

2024-01-13 13:15:44

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