July 24, 2021

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A Nice Warm Weekend Tropical Storm ETA Reforming Growing Risk To South Florida

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A Nice Warm Weekend Tropical Storm ETA Reforming Growing Risk To South Florida


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A Nice Warm Weekend Tropical Storm ETA Reforming Growing Risk To South Florida

Our nice weather continues today and through the weekend. We might even stretch it for Monday before we see deterioration and an approaching cold front. The forecast for the weekend is an easy one. We do have a weak upper trough that moved through overnight with some high clouds. That is now moving to the east and while some high clouds linger along the coast we should see increasing amounts of sunshine there and mostly sunny just about everywhere else. Highs today will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s just above everywhere. There are no worries on the radar today and through the weekend.


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The weekend is going to be fine. We are on cruise control. We will see sunshine both days. Perhaps we could see some night and morning low clouds and fog along the coast and in inland valleys but it should be the exception and not the rule plus it burns off quickly. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

While all of this is going on we are watching Eta in the Northwest Caribbean organizing and strengthening and will become a tropical storm later today. The risk for South Florida is increasing as we seem to be reconciling  weather model differences. Eta is reacting to an upper air trough in the North Central Gulf of Mexico which is pulling the storm northward and then turning it northwestward.

Interestingly the GFS model along with the European model are bullish on strengthening taking this to a high end tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane.  How it reacts to the upper low to the northwest of it will be key to track and strength.

Most of the hurricane strength models keep this as a middle to high end tropical storm over the next 5 days. Hurricane model tracks are all over the place a from the Eastern Gulf to the Bahamas. The National Hurricane Center forecast squares a compromise between all the models and timing suggest weather conditions in South Florida will deteriorate on Sunday as the center of ETA approaches.


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Now comes the longer term issue regarding our weather for next week. Weather conditions are going to deteriorate but not before we have a nice Monday with some sunshine and highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Winds by then start to turn onshore and we have an approaching cold front for Tuesday and Wednesday. This brings more clouds into the mix with highs probably not out of the 60s.

There should be enough of a south southwest flow aloft to pull moisture from Eta northward and getting involved with an approaching cold front. This happens without the tropical system itself getting drawn up the east coast. Instead Eta eventually winds up getting absorbed by the frontal boundary to the north. This opens the door for some widespread rain here Tuesday night and Wednesday. The frontal boundary will be basically stalled along the the East Coast and there could be another chance for showers late next week.




Please note that with regards to any severe weather,  tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.

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