November 28, 2023

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A litany of questions re: model initialization data

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A litany of questions re: model initialization data

All of the NWS models I've checked (GFS, ETA, NAM, HRRR. RUC/RAP and even the ensembles GEFS and SREF) show a significant, very localized surface cold pool approx 300 km west of the tip of Baja.

It shows up in every model run I can access, starting with Friday's 18z. And it is maintained thru the end of each model's run period.

The ECMWF and UKMET don't even hint at its existence. And, infrared satellite pics don't indicate colder waters over the spot.

So, what gives? Is there a buoy station there? I can't find one online. It seems like a buoy in that area is obviously out of whack and the NWS models are being initialized with that bad data. While the Euro models are either discarding the data, or don't even incorporate that station ob.

If that is the case, why doesn't NCEP/EMC throw out that station when initializing the model? Did someone call out sick Fri, Sat, Sun and today at NCEP? Are the Euro models throwing it out or not even using it in their model runs normally?

Or is it accurate, somehow? Alien base A/C?

And what kind of downstream effects could this bad surface data cause in model output?

(I've included a few selected screenshots for reference)

11/13 GFS 12z run 00h

11/13 GFS 12z run 384h

11/13 ECMWF 12z run 0h

11/10 GFS 18z run 0h

11/13 1846z IR Satellite

submitted by /u/khInstability


2023-11-13 19:42:43

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